---
title: "The Train 2025 Collection on csgo.net: odds & RTP"
description: "The Train 2025 Collection ($1.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.92% from 12 items with odds, observed 89.22% over 126 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thetrain2025collection
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [The Train 2025 Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thetrain2025collection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · The Train 2025 Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thetrain2025collection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thetrain2025collection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thetrain2025collection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thetrain2025collection?window=all)

Price · $1.39

Advertised RTP · 73.92% · EV $1.03 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.22% · 126 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 15 openings · below min

7 days · 85.17% ±17.10 104 openings

30 days · 89.22% ±15.49 126 openings

since tracking started · 89.22% ±15.49 126 openings

32.0% 76.0% 120.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thetrain2025collection?window=24h) | 15 | 75.88% ±43.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thetrain2025collection?window=7d) | 104 | 85.17% ±17.1 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thetrain2025collection) | 126 | 89.22% ±15.5 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thetrain2025collection?window=all) | 126 | 89.22% ±15.5 | +1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 6,826 | $34.97 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 406 | $13.35 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $5.99 | 13.6% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) | 26.1% | $1.53 | 38.8% | 38 | 32.9 | 1.16× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-well-worn) | 27.8% | $1.32 | 35.7% | 21 | 35.0 | 0.60× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-field-tested) | 11.2% | $0.25 | 2.8% | 15 | 14.1 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.21 | 1.9% | 4 | 11.8 | 0.34× |
| [FAMAS \| 2A2F (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.21 | 1.9% | 9 | 11.8 | 0.77× |
| [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.17 | 1.4% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× |
| [Galil AR \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-copper-fiber-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rain Station (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rain-station-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=thetrain2025collection)

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-well-worn) [ArT1K](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ArT1K) $1.39 $1.43 1.03x 2026-11-10 21:01 UTC

[Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-field-tested) [ArT1K](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ArT1K) $1.39 $0.25 0.18x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) [ArT1K](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ArT1K) $1.39 $1.54 1.11x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) [скрытопульный бл](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB) $1.39 $1.54 1.11x 2026-11-10 19:14 UTC

[FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-field-tested) [скрытопульный бл](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB) $1.39 $0.19 0.13x 2026-11-10 19:14 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-well-worn) [скрытопульный бл](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB) $1.39 $2.17 1.56x 2026-11-10 19:14 UTC

[XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-field-tested) [скрытопульный бл](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB) $1.39 $0.26 0.18x 2026-11-10 19:14 UTC

[MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) [скрытопульный бл](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB) $1.39 $1.54 1.11x 2026-11-10 19:14 UTC

[XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-field-tested) [скрытопульный бл](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB) $1.39 $0.26 0.18x 2026-11-10 19:14 UTC

[XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-field-tested) [скрытопульный бл](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB) $1.39 $0.26 0.18x 2026-11-10 19:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.39 | 73.92% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 73.75% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.64% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.44% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.80% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 74.20% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.05% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.17% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.10% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.22% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 74.62% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 74.63% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 74.61% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.63% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.57% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.60% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.72% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.66% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.66% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.59% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.67% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.71% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 74.87% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 75.14% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 75.01% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.51% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.78% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.82% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 74.73% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% rare 0.2% uncommon 2.3% #8847ff 26.1% Mythical 27.8% #4b69ff 20.6% blue 17.3% #5e98d9 5.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.92 on average: an expected loss of $26.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt