---
title: "TIO_GAZA case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "TIO_GAZA ($6.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.22% from 30 items with odds, observed 76.81% over 1,155 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tiogaza
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [TIO\_GAZA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tiogaza)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · TIO\_GAZA

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tiogaza?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tiogaza?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tiogaza) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tiogaza?window=all)

Price · $6.79

Advertised RTP · 76.22% · EV $5.18 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.81% · 1,155 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.49% ±14.14 132 openings

7 days · 77.73% ±5.18 997 openings

30 days · 76.81% ±4.82 1,155 openings

since tracking started · 76.81% ±4.82 1,155 openings

65.5% 80.5% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tiogaza?window=24h) | 132 | 80.49% ±14.1 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tiogaza?window=7d) | 997 | 77.73% ±5.18 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tiogaza) | 1,155 | 76.81% ±4.82 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tiogaza?window=all) | 1,155 | 76.81% ±4.82 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,155 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 9,588 | $253 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 8,977 | $183 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 7,409 | $126 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Charm \| Butane Buddy charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-butane-buddy) | 1 in 6,110 | $103 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,404 | $93.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 3,415 | $70.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 1,095 | $43.33 | 0.8% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 894 | $40.08 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.55× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 839 | $39.13 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 707 | $36.68 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 488 | $31.94 | 1.3% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $19.40 | 2.9% | 6 | 8.8 | 0.68× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $16.15 | 3.7% | 13 | 13.7 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $15.09 | 4.1% | 12 | 16.1 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $11.98 | 5.3% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $9.71 | 6.3% | 37 | 38.9 | 0.95× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.26 | 7.1% | 35 | 58.1 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $7.13 | 7.1% | 71 | 59.3 | 1.20× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $4.79 | 6.2% | 89 | 77.5 | 1.15× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $4.50 | 5.9% | 63 | 78.8 | 0.80× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $4.22 | 5.6% | 90 | 79.5 | 1.13× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $4.19 | 5.6% | 82 | 79.5 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $3.99 | 5.3% | 87 | 79.7 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.53 | 4.7% | 84 | 78.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.49 | 4.6% | 84 | 78.7 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.46 | 4.5% | 72 | 78.5 | 0.92× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.42 | 4.5% | 45 | 78.4 | 0.57× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.74 | 3.3% | 82 | 72.7 | 1.13× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $2.65 | 3.2% | 22 | 71.5 | 0.31× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.61 | 3.1% | 31 | 71.1 | 0.44× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=tiogaza)

[P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) [ООО"Тсос"](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9E%D0%9E%D0%9E%26quot%3B%D0%A2%D1%81%D0%BE%D1%81%26quot%3B) $6.79 $9.98 1.47x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [死Yarik優しさ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E6%AD%BBYarik%E5%84%AA%E3%81%97%E3%81%95) $6.79 $12.00 1.77x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC

[FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) [死Yarik優しさ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E6%AD%BBYarik%E5%84%AA%E3%81%97%E3%81%95) $6.79 $8.04 1.18x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) [死Yarik優しさ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E6%AD%BBYarik%E5%84%AA%E3%81%97%E3%81%95) $6.79 $3.97 0.58x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [死Yarik優しさ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E6%AD%BBYarik%E5%84%AA%E3%81%97%E3%81%95) $6.79 $3.61 0.53x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) [死Yarik優しさ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E6%AD%BBYarik%E5%84%AA%E3%81%97%E3%81%95) $6.79 $4.38 0.65x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [死Yarik優しさ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E6%AD%BBYarik%E5%84%AA%E3%81%97%E3%81%95) $6.79 $3.61 0.53x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [死Yarik優しさ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E6%AD%BBYarik%E5%84%AA%E3%81%97%E3%81%95) $6.79 $12.00 1.77x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) [死Yarik優しさ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E6%AD%BBYarik%E5%84%AA%E3%81%97%E3%81%95) $6.79 $4.64 0.68x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [死Yarik優しさ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E6%AD%BBYarik%E5%84%AA%E3%81%97%E3%81%95) $6.79 $3.61 0.53x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.22% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.00% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.88% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.85% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.12% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.47% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.47% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.45% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.52% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.59% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 76.97% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.03% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.03% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.94% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.05% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.41% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.43% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.31% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.09% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.09% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% classified 14.7% extraordinary 0.0% Ancient 0.4% red 0.1% #d32ee6 1.2% restricted 11.3% #8847ff 5.1% pink 13.5% #d32ce6 6.9% Legendary 20.5% Classified 6.8% mil spec 13.0% Mil Spec Grade 6.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.22 on average: an expected loss of $23.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt