--- title: "Toncoin case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Toncoin ($74.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.83% from 6 items with odds, observed 77.79% over 168 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toncoin rendered: 2026-11-11T17:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Toncoin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toncoin) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Toncoin A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toncoin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toncoin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toncoin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toncoin?window=all) Price · $74.99 Advertised RTP · 76.83% · EV $57.61 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.79% · 168 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 56.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 43.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 13 openings · below min 7 days · 77.21% ±12.36 165 openings 30 days · 77.79% ±12.25 168 openings since tracking started · 77.79% ±12.25 168 openings 18.0% 63.0% 108.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toncoin?window=24h) | 13 | 63.08% ±44.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toncoin?window=7d) | 165 | 77.21% ±12.4 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toncoin) | 168 | 77.79% ±12.3 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toncoin?window=all) | 168 | 77.79% ±12.3 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 168 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,294 | $747 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 341 | $477 | 2.4% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $176 | 16.2% | 11 | 8.9 | 1.23× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $156 | 19.9% | 8 | 12.4 | 0.65× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 43.5% | $75.80 | 57.2% | 72 | 73.0 | 0.99× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 43.5% | $4.22 | 3.2% | 74 | 73.0 | 1.01× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=toncoin) [AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [dakkotaducs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/dakkotaducs) $74.99 $4.23 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [dakkotaducs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/dakkotaducs) $74.99 $4.23 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [MaDDY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MaDDY) $74.99 $4.24 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) [MaDDY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MaDDY) $74.99 $75.81 1.01x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [Keep™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Keep%E2%84%A2) $74.99 $4.23 0.06x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [Keep™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Keep%E2%84%A2) $74.99 $4.23 0.06x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $74.99 $178 2.37x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [Wolf](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Wolf) $74.99 $4.23 0.06x 2026-11-11 02:31 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $74.99 $4.28 0.06x 2026-11-11 01:37 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) [dakkotaducs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/dakkotaducs) $74.99 $177 2.36x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $74.99 | 76.83% | 6 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $74.99 | 76.63% | 6 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $74.99 | 76.46% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $74.99 | 76.44% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $74.99 | 76.73% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $74.99 | 77.08% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $74.99 | 77.08% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $74.99 | 77.06% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $74.99 | 77.13% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $74.99 | 77.19% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $74.99 | 77.60% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $74.99 | 77.59% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.63% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.60% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.61% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $74.99 | 77.55% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.68% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $74.99 | 78.03% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $74.99 | 78.04% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.94% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.62% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.72% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.72% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $74.99 | 77.72% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed sunny 0.1% classified 43.8% extraordinary 5.3% covert 50.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.83 on average: an expected loss of $23.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt