---
title: "Toxic mining case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Toxic mining ($0.14) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 62.66% from 11 items with odds, observed 2799.26% over 193 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toxicmining
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Toxic mining](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toxicmining)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Toxic mining

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toxicmining?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toxicmining?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toxicmining) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toxicmining?window=all)

Price · $0.14

Advertised RTP · 62.66% · EV $0.09 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 2799.26% · 193 openings, odds method

Variance · 12.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 98.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 34 openings · below min

7 days · 2836.25% ±41.43 159 openings

30 days · 2799.26% ±37.45 193 openings

since tracking started · 2799.26% ±37.45 193 openings

62.0% 1470.3% 2878.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 63.24% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (2761.81% – 2836.71%, 193 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toxicmining?window=24h) | 34 | 2696.01% ±102.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toxicmining?window=7d) | 159 | 2836.25% ±41.4 | +131.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toxicmining) | 193 | 2799.26% ±37.4 | +143.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/toxicmining?window=all) | 193 | 2799.26% ±37.4 | +143.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 196 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 735 | $5.45 | 8.5% | 13 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 632 | $5.18 | 9.3% | 7 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 612 | $5.13 | 9.6% | 21 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 211 | $3.58 | 19.3% | 57 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $3.22 | 23.8% | 74 | 1.3 | 58.29× |
| [XM1014 \| Hieroglyph (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-hieroglyph-field-tested) | 38.0% | $0.04 | 16.9% | 0 | 74.5 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 26.7% | $0.03 | 8.2% | 0 | 52.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 17.3% | $0.02 | 3.3% | 0 | 33.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-oxide-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | \<$0.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | \<$0.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.2 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-cell-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | \<$0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.8 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries) [GI2GI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GI2GI) $0.14 $7.44 53.14x 2026-11-02 22:58 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [green\_dok](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/green_dok) $0.14 $7.28 52.00x 2026-11-05 14:05 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [samarov2026](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/samarov2026) $0.14 $7.26 51.86x 2026-11-05 20:34 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [samarov2026](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/samarov2026) $0.14 $7.25 51.79x 2026-11-06 22:03 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [Скычавомпл](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%BA%D1%8B%D1%87%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BF%D0%BB) $0.14 $7.22 51.57x 2026-11-07 10:35 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) [breachermd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/breachermd) $0.14 $7.22 51.57x 2026-11-06 14:37 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [green\_dok](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/green_dok) $0.14 $7.20 51.43x 2026-11-07 15:47 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [three hundred bucks](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/three%20hundred%20bucks) $0.14 $7.17 51.21x 2026-11-04 04:59 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [Ayrton Senna](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ayrton%20Senna) $0.14 $7.15 51.07x 2026-11-08 10:38 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [Disa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Disa) $0.14 $7.15 51.07x 2026-11-08 02:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=toxicmining)

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [sasiska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sasiska) $0.14 $3.20 22.86x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [sasiska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sasiska) $0.14 $3.20 22.86x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [cat\_vjuh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/cat_vjuh) $0.14 $3.18 22.71x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [Vander](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vander) $0.14 $3.18 22.71x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [Толкуйдаа](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B0) $0.14 $3.18 22.71x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $0.14 $3.54 25.29x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [Keep™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Keep%E2%84%A2) $0.14 $3.54 25.29x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [PIV0](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PIV0) $0.14 $3.22 23.00x 2026-11-11 10:55 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [ℋℴℳℯℛ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%84%8B%E2%84%B4%E2%84%B3%E2%84%AF%E2%84%9B) $0.14 $3.22 23.00x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [Re1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Re1) $0.14 $3.22 23.00x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.14 | 62.66% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.14 | 62.65% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.14 | 62.57% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.14 | 62.84% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.14 | 63.12% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.14 | 63.11% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.14 | 63.12% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.14 | 62.67% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.14 | 62.72% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.14 | 63.64% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.14 | 63.63% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.14 | 63.01% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.14 | 63.64% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.14 | 63.02% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.14 | 63.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.14 | 63.59% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.14 | 63.23% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.14 | 63.22% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.14 | 63.00% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.14 | 62.99% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.14 | 62.98% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.14 | 63.24% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.14 | 63.56% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.14 | 64.00% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.14 | 63.82% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.14 | 63.62% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.14 | 63.25% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.14 | 63.29% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.14 | 63.33% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.14 | 63.19% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.1% Legendary 0.2% classified 1.3% consumer 61.0% Consumer 26.7% #b0c3d9 10.7% best hit $7.44 (53.14x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 62.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $62.66 on average: an expected loss of $37.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt