---
title: "Train case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Train ($0.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 68.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 235.04% over 13 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/train
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Train](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/train)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Train

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/train?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/train?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/train) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/train?window=all)

Price · $0.09

Advertised RTP · 68.91% · EV $0.06 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 235.04% · 13 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 13 openings · below min

30 days · 13 openings · below min

since tracking started · 13 openings · below min

69.0% 167.0% 265.0%

**Small sample.** 13 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/train?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/train?window=7d) | 13 | 235.04% ±29.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/train) | 13 | 235.04% ±29.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/train?window=all) | 13 | 235.04% ±29.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193 | $0.33 | 2.8% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.25 | 4.5% | 3 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.15 | 9.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.13 | 10.7% | 5 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.10 | 12.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.10 | 12.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.09 | 12.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 10.1% | $0.08 | 12.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Ash Wood (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $0.05 | 10.7% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 10.7% | $0.03 | 4.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.02 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.01 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.01 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.01 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | \<$0.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=train)

[Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) [SAYREX1T](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAYREX1T) $0.09 $0.14 1.57x 2026-11-09 18:45 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [kytys5000](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kytys5000) $0.09 $0.26 2.83x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) [\[GRS\] Capo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%5BGRS%5D%20Capo) $0.09 $0.22 2.41x 2026-11-08 15:05 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) [\_HelgaR\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_HelgaR_) $0.09 $0.20 2.21x 2026-11-08 11:15 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [Killua Zoldyck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Killua%20Zoldyck) $0.09 $0.26 2.87x 2026-11-07 20:45 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) [Killua Zoldyck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Killua%20Zoldyck) $0.09 $0.14 1.61x 2026-11-07 20:44 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) [Killua Zoldyck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Killua%20Zoldyck) $0.09 $0.14 1.61x 2026-11-07 20:44 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) [Killua Zoldyck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Killua%20Zoldyck) $0.09 $0.35 3.84x 2026-11-07 20:43 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [\[GRS\] Capo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%5BGRS%5D%20Capo) $0.09 $0.26 2.88x 2026-11-07 07:02 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) [pudra](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pudra) $0.09 $0.25 2.77x 2026-11-06 11:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.09 | 68.91% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.09 | 68.87% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.09 | 68.89% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.09 | 69.13% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.09 | 69.38% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.37% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.47% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.41% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.32% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.09 | 69.92% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.09 | 69.90% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.09 | 69.86% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.09 | 69.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.09 | 69.89% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.09 | 69.74% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.90% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.84% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.91% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.77% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.79% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.70% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.09 | 70.03% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.09 | 70.21% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.09 | 70.19% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.09 | 70.16% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.09 | 69.95% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.09 | 70.01% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.09 | 69.94% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.09 | 69.84% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.09 | 69.84% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 13.3% Rare 0.5% restricted 1.1% milspec 5.3% Uncommon 7.7% light blue 8.0% industrial 22.9% Consumer 10.7% consumer 18.4% #777777 12.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 68.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $68.91 on average: an expected loss of $31.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt