---
title: "CS2 Train case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CS2 Train ($0.27) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.70% from 30 items with odds, observed 56.67% over 1 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/traincs2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [CS2 Train](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/traincs2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · CS2 Train

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/traincs2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/traincs2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/traincs2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/traincs2?window=all)

Price · $0.27

Advertised RTP · 76.70% · EV $0.21 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 56.67% · 1 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 1 openings · below min

since tracking started · 1 openings · below min

-0.5% 128.0% 256.5%

**Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/traincs2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/traincs2?window=7d) | 1 | 56.67% ±199.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/traincs2) | 1 | 56.67% ±199.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/traincs2?window=all) | 1 | 56.67% ±199.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,558 | $76.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 198,669 | $53.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 193,166 | $30.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 120,402 | $11.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42,363 | $6.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 23,857 | $5.13 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 8,847 | $3.58 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 5,677 | $3.06 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,342 | $1.87 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-field-tested) | 1 in 571 | $1.39 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 399 | $1.22 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 160 | $0.88 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $0.63 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.41 | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.40 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.36 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.35 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.33 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.30 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.27 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.26 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.17 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.13 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.07 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.06 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.06 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.06 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.05 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.05 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.04 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=traincs2)

[Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) [UR MOM IS GAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/UR%20MOM%20IS%20GAY) $0.27 $0.15 0.57x 2026-11-04 15:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.27 | 76.70% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.27 | 76.47% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.27 | 76.47% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.27 | 76.74% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.27 | 77.08% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.27 | 77.10% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.27 | 77.08% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.27 | 77.11% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.27 | 77.16% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.27 | 77.68% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.27 | 77.64% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.27 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.27 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.27 | 77.68% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.27 | 77.65% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.63% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.62% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.64% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.66% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.27 | 77.52% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.27 | 77.67% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.27 | 78.02% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.27 | 78.08% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.27 | 77.98% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.27 | 77.63% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.27 | 77.78% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.27 | 77.75% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.27 | 77.75% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.27 | 77.70% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.1% restricted 4.0% blue 0.2% mil spec 10.4% Rare 13.8% #8847ff 4.6% violet 10.1% light blue 6.6% #4b69ff 11.9% milspec 23.4% industrial 14.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.70 on average: an expected loss of $23.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt