---
title: "Tron case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tron ($139.00) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.61% from 11 items with odds, observed 71.95% over 107 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tron
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Tron](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tron)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Tron

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tron?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tron?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tron) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tron?window=all)

Price · $139.00

Advertised RTP · 74.61% · EV $103.71 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.95% · 107 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 71.41% ±14.91 102 openings

30 days · 71.95% ±14.55 107 openings

since tracking started · 71.95% ±14.55 107 openings

56.0% 117.8% 179.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tron?window=24h) | 12 | 135.87% ±42.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tron?window=7d) | 102 | 71.41% ±14.9 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tron) | 107 | 71.95% ±14.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tron?window=all) | 107 | 71.95% ±14.5 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 977 | $1,141 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 243 | $706 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $540 | 4.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $428 | 6.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $270 | 13.3% | 1 | 5.5 | 0.18× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $200 | 18.1% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) | 13.4% | $159 | 20.6% | 20 | 14.5 | 1.38× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 21.7% | $75.30 | 15.7% | 25 | 23.4 | 1.07× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) | 17.6% | $42.66 | 7.3% | 21 | 19.0 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 16.0% | $36.79 | 5.7% | 13 | 17.2 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 13.8% | $30.29 | 4.0% | 4 | 14.9 | 0.27× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) [Poromedic](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Poromedic) $139 $705 5.07x 2026-11-11 10:24 UTC

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) [Croce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Croce) $139 $548 3.94x 2026-11-10 05:11 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=tron)

[Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $139 $30.29 0.22x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $139 $75.74 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $139 $30.02 0.22x 2026-11-11 10:33 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) [Poromedic](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Poromedic) $139 $705 5.07x 2026-11-11 10:24 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $139 $159 1.14x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $139 $42.63 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:24 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $139 $199 1.43x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $139 $277 2.00x 2026-11-11 06:54 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $139 $76.07 0.55x 2026-11-11 02:50 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $139 $429 3.09x 2026-11-11 02:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $139 | 74.61% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $139 | 74.42% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $139 | 74.25% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $139 | 74.23% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $139 | 74.52% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $139 | 74.84% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $139 | 74.85% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $139 | 74.84% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $139 | 74.90% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $139 | 74.96% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $139 | 75.38% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $139 | 75.36% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $139 | 75.35% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $139 | 75.37% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $139 | 75.38% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $139 | 75.37% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $139 | 75.38% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $139 | 75.36% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $139 | 75.37% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $139 | 75.38% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $139 | 75.37% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $139 | 75.31% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $139 | 75.43% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $139 | 75.77% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $139 | 75.78% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $139 | 75.69% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $139 | 75.38% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $139 | 75.48% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $139 | 75.47% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $139 | 75.48% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 16.1% covert 34.0% extraordinary 36.2% Ancient 13.8% best hit $705 (5.07x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.61 on average: an expected loss of $25.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt