---
title: "Трофейная рыбешка case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Трофейная рыбешка ($53.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.82% from 28 items with odds, observed 83.53% over 7 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/trophyminnow
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Трофейная рыбешка](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/trophyminnow)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Трофейная рыбешка

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/trophyminnow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/trophyminnow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/trophyminnow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/trophyminnow?window=all)

Price · $53.99

Advertised RTP · 76.82% · EV $41.48 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.53% · 7 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 7 openings · below min

30 days · 7 openings · below min

since tracking started · 7 openings · below min

35.0% 83.5% 132.0%

**Small sample.** 7 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/trophyminnow?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/trophyminnow?window=7d) | 7 | 83.53% ±48.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/trophyminnow) | 7 | 83.53% ±48.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/trophyminnow?window=all) | 7 | 83.53% ±48.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 8,791 | $1,124 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,596 | $1,061 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 6,821 | $747 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,658 | $729 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 3,601 | $477 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 2,654 | $411 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,470 | $319 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,119 | $287 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-big-swell-field-tested) | 1 in 232 | $160 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 232 | $160 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 158 | $138 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $99.43 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $93.16 | 3.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $92.02 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $75.80 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $67.85 | 5.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $60.01 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $58.50 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $41.07 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $39.13 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $37.82 | 6.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $33.87 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Charm \| Quick Silver charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-quick-silver) | 1 in 12 | $31.16 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $30.88 | 6.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $30.66 | 6.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $23.99 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $23.22 | 4.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $19.06 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=trophyminnow)

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) [Vice](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vice) $53.99 $89.93 1.67x 2026-11-09 18:47 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) [Vice](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vice) $53.99 $69.47 1.29x 2026-11-09 18:47 UTC

[FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) [Vice](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vice) $53.99 $37.83 0.70x 2026-11-09 18:47 UTC

[M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [Vice](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vice) $53.99 $27.59 0.51x 2026-11-09 18:47 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [Vice](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vice) $53.99 $38.91 0.72x 2026-11-09 18:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) [Vice](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vice) $53.99 $21.64 0.40x 2026-11-09 18:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) [Vice](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vice) $53.99 $30.33 0.56x 2026-11-09 18:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $53.99 | 76.82% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $53.99 | 76.63% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.45% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.43% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.73% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $53.99 | 77.07% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.07% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.05% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.12% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.19% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $53.99 | 77.59% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $53.99 | 77.58% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.59% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.60% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.55% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.67% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $53.99 | 78.02% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $53.99 | 78.03% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.93% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.71% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.71% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $53.99 | 77.72% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% classified 31.6% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% legendary 0.0% covert knife 0.1% restricted 0.1% rare 8.7% covert 18.6% gold 0.6% red 24.8% pink 7.3% Ancient 8.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.82 on average: an expected loss of $23.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt