---
title: "UFC 329: Макгрегор case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "UFC 329: Макгрегор ($0.13) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.67% from 30 items with odds, observed 80.14% over 867 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ufc329
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [UFC 329: Макгрегор](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ufc329)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · UFC 329: Макгрегор

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ufc329?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ufc329?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ufc329) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ufc329?window=all)

Price · $0.13

Advertised RTP · 73.67% · EV $0.10 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.14% · 867 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98 openings · below min

7 days · 79.90% ±5.93 717 openings

30 days · 80.14% ±5.39 867 openings

since tracking started · 80.14% ±5.39 867 openings

57.0% 75.0% 93.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 74.56% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (74.75% – 85.52%, 867 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ufc329?window=24h) | 98 | 74.97% ±17.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ufc329?window=7d) | 717 | 79.90% ±5.93 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ufc329) | 867 | 80.14% ±5.39 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ufc329?window=all) | 867 | 80.14% ±5.39 | +2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 875 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 9,809 | $5.18 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 9,673 | $4.31 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 9,250 | $3.22 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 9,011 | $2.91 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-well-worn) | 1 in 7,780 | $2.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 7,390 | $1.97 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 6,675 | $1.75 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 5,253 | $1.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 3,939 | $1.20 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,502 | $1.13 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 3,329 | $1.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 2,467 | $0.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 726 | $0.59 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.49× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 566 | $0.54 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 454 | $0.49 | 1.1% | 5 | 1.9 | 2.59× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 337 | $0.44 | 1.4% | 7 | 2.6 | 2.70× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $0.34 | 2.1% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $0.31 | 2.5% | 12 | 6.8 | 1.76× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $0.30 | 2.6% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.37× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.18 | 5.7% | 18 | 27.0 | 0.67× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Tusk charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-tusk) | 1 in 31 | $0.18 | 5.9% | 56 | 27.9 | 2.01× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.14 | 7.5% | 9 | 44.9 | 0.20× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.13 | 7.7% | 60 | 48.3 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.10 | 8.8% | 0 | 70.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) | 10.6% | $0.08 | 9.0% | 61 | 92.9 | 0.66× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) | 11.7% | $0.07 | 8.6% | 76 | 101.9 | 0.75× |
| [Charm \| Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) | 11.9% | $0.07 | 8.5% | 108 | 104.5 | 1.03× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-field-tested) | 12.3% | $0.06 | 8.0% | 95 | 107.9 | 0.88× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.06 | 7.8% | 111 | 109.0 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) | 12.7% | $0.05 | 6.6% | 53 | 111.4 | 0.48× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=ufc329)

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) [神 xyй cs2case.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E7%A5%9E%20xy%D0%B9%20cs2case.gg) $0.13 $0.13 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Charm | Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) [神 xyй cs2case.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E7%A5%9E%20xy%D0%B9%20cs2case.gg) $0.13 $0.07 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Charm | Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) [神 xyй cs2case.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E7%A5%9E%20xy%D0%B9%20cs2case.gg) $0.13 $0.07 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) [Katakia](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Katakia) $0.13 $0.06 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) [Katakia](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Katakia) $0.13 $0.18 1.37x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) [Katakia](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Katakia) $0.13 $0.59 4.54x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Charm | Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) [Katakia](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Katakia) $0.13 $0.07 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) [Katakia](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Katakia) $0.13 $0.13 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) [Katakia](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Katakia) $0.13 $0.06 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) [Katakia](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Katakia) $0.13 $0.05 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.13 | 73.67% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.13 | 73.38% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.13 | 73.28% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.13 | 73.65% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.13 | 74.14% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.13 | 74.03% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.13 | 73.91% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.13 | 74.16% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.13 | 74.17% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.13 | 74.76% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.13 | 74.56% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.13 | 74.56% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.13 | 74.54% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.13 | 74.52% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.13 | 74.53% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.65% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.72% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.61% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.66% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.74% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.46% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.69% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.13 | 74.97% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.13 | 75.01% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.83% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.57% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.59% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.69% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.13 | 74.68% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.13 | 74.63% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Legendary 0.0% classified 0.0% pink 0.0% Mythical 0.0% Rare 29.6% #8847ff 0.1% restricted 0.4% violet 1.3% blue 0.6% #4b69ff 46.2% common 3.1% Uncommon 8.1% milspec 10.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.67 on average: an expected loss of $26.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt