---
title: "USP-S case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "USP-S ($2.69) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.53% from 33 items with odds, observed 71.91% over 5,695 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/usp
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [USP-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/usp)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · USP-S

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/usp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/usp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/usp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/usp?window=all)

Price · $2.69

Advertised RTP · 76.53% · EV $2.06 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.91% · 5,695 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 73.75% ±5.73 683 openings

7 days · 71.77% ±2.12 5,201 openings

30 days · 71.91% ±2.03 5,695 openings

since tracking started · 71.91% ±2.03 5,695 openings

67.5% 73.8% 80.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.34% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (69.88% – 73.93%, 5,695 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/usp?window=24h) | 683 | 73.75% ±5.73 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/usp?window=7d) | 5,201 | 71.77% ±2.12 | −5.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/usp) | 5,695 | 71.91% ±2.03 | −5.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/usp?window=all) | 5,695 | 71.91% ±2.03 | −5.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,753 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 176,713 | $182 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 109,846 | $98.94 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 44,357 | $60.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 34,981 | $55.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,028 | $53.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,441 | $44.84 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 9,323 | $33.79 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 9,066 | $33.46 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 7,106 | $30.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) | 1 in 5,876 | $28.76 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-field-tested) | 1 in 5,692 | $28.45 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.98× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,184 | $23.29 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 3,068 | $23.00 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 2,975 | $22.76 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.55× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 1,755 | $18.99 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 1,590 | $18.37 | 0.6% | 7 | 3.6 | 1.93× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 1,318 | $17.22 | 0.6% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.46× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $13.32 | 1.0% | 0 | 9.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 142 | $7.85 | 2.7% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $6.43 | 3.7% | 0 | 68.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $6.41 | 3.7% | 41 | 69.2 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $4.07 | 6.9% | 123 | 200.8 | 0.61× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.41 | 8.2% | 358 | 283.2 | 1.26× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $3.22 | 8.5% | 393 | 314.3 | 1.25× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.06 | 8.8% | 455 | 340.7 | 1.34× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $2.66 | 9.4% | 555 | 420.2 | 1.32× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.56 | 9.6% | 291 | 442.1 | 0.66× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.47 | 9.6% | 275 | 462.0 | 0.60× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.97 | 5.2% | 864 | 636.9 | 1.36× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.97 | 5.2% | 83 | 637.2 | 0.13× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.95 | 5.1% | 800 | 634.3 | 1.26× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 10.3% | $0.82 | 4.1% | 395 | 592.1 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 10.1% | $0.79 | 3.9% | 700 | 579.8 | 1.21× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=usp)

[USP-S | Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) [КИБЕРСПИРТ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%98%D0%91%D0%95%D0%A0%D0%A1%D0%9F%D0%98%D0%A0%D0%A2) $2.69 $0.97 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [КИБЕРСПИРТ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%98%D0%91%D0%95%D0%A0%D0%A1%D0%9F%D0%98%D0%A0%D0%A2) $2.69 $2.61 0.97x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[USP-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [-=|FaLCoN|=-](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/-%3D%7CFaLCoN%7C%3D-) $2.69 $2.73 1.01x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) [-=|FaLCoN|=-](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/-%3D%7CFaLCoN%7C%3D-) $2.69 $3.98 1.48x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[USP-S | Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) [VTEC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VTEC) $2.69 $0.97 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [VTEC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VTEC) $2.69 $1.01 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [VTEC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VTEC) $2.69 $1.01 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [VTEC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VTEC) $2.69 $0.85 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[USP-S | Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) [VTEC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VTEC) $2.69 $0.97 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [Aleky :D](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Aleky%20%3AD) $2.69 $0.83 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.69 | 76.53% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.38% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.30% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.67% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 76.92% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.97% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.89% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.08% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.08% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.69 | 77.50% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.69 | 77.46% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.54% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.54% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.48% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.47% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.57% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.46% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.56% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.69 | 77.86% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.69 | 77.90% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.81% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.56% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.62% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.60% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.69 | 77.61% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.69 | 77.58% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 1.2% classified 10.5% covert 0.0% restricted 6.0% red 0.0% mil spec 13.8% Mythical 21.2% Restricted 0.0% pink 0.1% industrial 0.9% #4b69ff 12.3% violet 7.3% Rare 7.7% blue 8.0% #8847ff 11.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.53 on average: an expected loss of $23.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt