---
title: "Operation Vanguard Weapon Case on csgo.net: odds & RTP"
description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vanguard
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Operation Vanguard Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vanguard)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vanguard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vanguard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vanguard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vanguard?window=all)

Price · $2.69

Advertised RTP · 67.57% · EV $1.82 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 66.63% · 311 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 50.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 62 openings · below min

7 days · 66.98% ±20.17 291 openings

30 days · 66.63% ±19.52 311 openings

since tracking started · 66.63% ±19.52 311 openings

21.5% 65.0% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vanguard?window=24h) | 62 | 65.06% ±42.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vanguard?window=7d) | 291 | 66.98% ±20.2 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vanguard) | 311 | 66.63% ±19.5 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vanguard?window=all) | 311 | 66.63% ±19.5 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 311 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 199,986 | $1,962 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,495 | $598 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 190,484 | $221 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 152,329 | $120 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 91,586 | $77.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 89,158 | $75.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 345 | $9.71 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $8.42 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 184 | $7.84 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $7.13 | 2.8% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.88 | 14.0% | 34 | 27.5 | 1.24× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 13.4% | $2.43 | 17.9% | 15 | 41.7 | 0.36× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 26.0% | $1.79 | 25.6% | 77 | 80.8 | 0.95× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) | 49.8% | $1.20 | 32.9% | 173 | 154.9 | 1.12× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=vanguard)

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [Satella](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Satella) $2.69 $1.77 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) [,,N!ppL3"](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%2C%2CN!ppL3%22) $2.69 $1.22 0.45x 2026-11-11 10:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $2.69 $2.87 1.07x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) [،دنH.u.y.L.o.P.a.N. 2.0ال](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D8%8C%D8%AF%D9%86H.u.y.L.o.P.a.N.%202.0%D8%A7%D9%84) $2.69 $1.30 0.48x 2026-11-11 07:56 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) [ROLTON](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ROLTON) $2.69 $1.30 0.48x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) [Sif](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sif) $2.69 $1.35 0.50x 2026-11-11 00:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [Sif](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sif) $2.69 $1.77 0.66x 2026-11-11 00:22 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) [Sif](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sif) $2.69 $2.33 0.87x 2026-11-11 00:22 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) [Sif](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sif) $2.69 $1.35 0.50x 2026-11-11 00:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [Sif](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sif) $2.69 $1.77 0.66x 2026-11-11 00:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.69 | 67.57% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.69 | 67.34% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.69 | 67.14% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.69 | 67.05% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.69 | 67.48% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 67.78% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.69 | 67.75% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.69 | 67.75% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.69 | 67.83% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.69 | 67.74% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.69 | 68.29% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.69 | 68.21% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.69 | 68.13% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.69 | 68.34% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 68.22% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 68.31% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 68.27% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 68.17% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.69 | 68.28% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.69 | 68.23% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 68.26% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 68.11% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 68.21% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.69 | 68.56% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.69 | 68.54% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.69 | 68.54% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.69 | 68.19% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.69 | 68.24% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.69 | 68.22% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.69 | 68.34% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 1.3% #8847ff 0.7% restricted 58.6% mil spec 13.4% Mythical 26.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 67.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $67.57 on average: an expected loss of $32.43 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt