---
title: "vovo_grobau case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "vovo_grobau ($2.59) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.73% from 34 items with odds, observed 83.03% over 1,102 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vovogrobau
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [vovo\_grobau](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vovogrobau)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · vovo\_grobau

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vovogrobau?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vovogrobau?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vovogrobau) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vovogrobau?window=all)

Price · $2.59

Advertised RTP · 75.73% · EV $1.96 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.03% · 1,102 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78 openings · below min

7 days · 83.92% ±4.08 962 openings

30 days · 83.03% ±3.82 1,102 openings

since tracking started · 83.03% ±3.82 1,102 openings

58.5% 73.5% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.40% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.21% – 86.85%, 1,102 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vovogrobau?window=24h) | 78 | 72.86% ±13.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vovogrobau?window=7d) | 962 | 83.92% ±4.08 | +3.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vovogrobau) | 1,102 | 83.03% ±3.82 | +3.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/vovogrobau?window=all) | 1,102 | 83.03% ±3.82 | +3.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,102 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 178,907 | $160 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 153,703 | $117 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 150,779 | $114 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,490 | $93.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 97,720 | $77.11 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 23,467 | $39.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 18,725 | $36.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 16,959 | $35.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 16,439 | $34.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,660 | $23.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 3,422 | $20.17 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 2,175 | $17.26 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 1,030 | $13.35 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 783 | $12.14 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.13× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 733 | $11.87 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 693 | $11.64 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.26× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 505 | $10.42 | 1.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 164 | $6.95 | 2.2% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $6.06 | 2.7% | 12 | 9.7 | 1.24× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $5.37 | 3.3% | 17 | 13.1 | 1.29× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $4.79 | 3.9% | 18 | 17.4 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $3.20 | 6.1% | 37 | 41.4 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.00 | 6.5% | 56 | 46.7 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.88 | 6.7% | 46 | 50.1 | 0.92× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Eco charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-eco) | 1 in 19 | $2.59 | 7.1% | 69 | 59.4 | 1.16× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.36 | 7.4% | 31 | 67.6 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.96 | 7.6% | 71 | 83.3 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.95 | 7.5% | 102 | 83.5 | 1.22× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.71 | 7.4% | 105 | 93.1 | 1.13× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $1.20 | 5.8% | 64 | 105.3 | 0.61× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $1.18 | 5.8% | 116 | 105.4 | 1.10× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $1.07 | 5.2% | 112 | 104.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.05 | 5.1% | 122 | 104.5 | 1.17× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.90 | 4.2% | 16 | 100.8 | 0.16× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $2.59 $161 61.97x 2026-11-04 19:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=vovogrobau)

[Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) [null](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/null) $2.59 $1.06 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) [null](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/null) $2.59 $5.96 2.30x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC

[Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) [Кассета](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0) $2.59 $1.06 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) [Xryshev](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Xryshev) $2.59 $1.04 0.40x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) [skinner](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/skinner) $2.59 $1.20 0.46x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) [skinner](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/skinner) $2.59 $1.06 0.41x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[MAC-10 | Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) [skinner](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/skinner) $2.59 $1.18 0.46x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) [skinner](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/skinner) $2.59 $1.96 0.76x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) [skinner](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/skinner) $2.59 $2.00 0.77x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) [skinner](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/skinner) $2.59 $2.35 0.91x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.59 | 75.73% | 34 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.59 | 75.47% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.36% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.33% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.60% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.59 | 75.95% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.95% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.93% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.96% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.59 | 76.08% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.59 | 76.44% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.59 | 76.42% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.59 | 76.40% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.42% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.49% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.46% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.49% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.46% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.48% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.50% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.42% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.39% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.51% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.59 | 76.85% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.59 | 76.81% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.74% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.45% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.59% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.53% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.59 | 76.55% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% classified 10.4% pink 5.8% rare 0.7% restricted 22.7% violet 19.9% uncommon 1.2% #d32ce6 5.4% Rare 7.6% Mythical 7.6% #8847ff 9.6% mil spec 9.1% best hit $161 (61.97x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.73 on average: an expected loss of $24.27 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt