---
title: "CS:GO Weapon Case 2 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS:GO Weapon Case 2 ($20.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.07% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.24% over 86 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [CS:GO Weapon Case 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · CS:GO Weapon Case 2

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-2?window=all)

Price · $20.99

Advertised RTP · 74.07% · EV $15.55 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.24% · 86 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 15 openings · below min

7 days · 76 openings · below min

30 days · 86 openings · below min

since tracking started · 86 openings · below min

65.0% 119.8% 174.5%

**Small sample.** 86 openings and 20.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-2?window=24h) | 15 | 132.33% ±41.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-2?window=7d) | 76 | 84.33% ±18.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-2) | 86 | 88.24% ±17.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-2?window=all) | 86 | 88.24% ±17.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,145 | $259 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,032 | $193 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 352 | $130 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $93.16 | 4.3% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $59.22 | 8.7% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $53.96 | 9.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $40.06 | 13.8% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.74× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 12.4% | $21.38 | 17.1% | 4 | 10.7 | 0.37× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $11.68 | 10.5% | 15 | 12.1 | 1.24× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 14.0% | $11.64 | 10.5% | 16 | 12.0 | 1.33× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 13.6% | $10.61 | 9.3% | 9 | 11.7 | 0.77× |
| [Nova \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-minimal-wear) | 12.1% | $8.33 | 6.5% | 3 | 10.4 | 0.29× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $5.10 | 2.8% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.63 | 0.8% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.55 | 0.7% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.54 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=weapon-2)

[FAMAS | Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-field-tested) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $20.99 $2.56 0.12x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $20.99 $59.27 2.82x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $20.99 $11.94 0.57x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $20.99 $40.23 1.92x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $20.99 $11.94 0.57x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-minimal-wear) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $20.99 $8.03 0.38x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $20.99 $12.61 0.60x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $20.99 $93.64 4.46x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $20.99 $54.01 2.57x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) [ЗахарЗубрайло](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%97%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%97%D1%83%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB%D0%BE) $20.99 $40.17 1.91x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $20.99 | 74.07% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $20.99 | 73.88% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.71% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.70% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.97% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $20.99 | 74.31% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.31% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.29% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.35% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.42% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $20.99 | 74.84% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $20.99 | 74.81% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $20.99 | 74.81% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.82% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.84% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.84% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.81% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.82% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.77% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.88% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $20.99 | 75.22% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $20.99 | 75.22% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $20.99 | 75.14% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.84% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.93% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.92% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $20.99 | 74.93% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.4% classified 8.2% Mil Spec 12.4% restricted 41.6% Restricted 12.1% mil spec 13.0% Rare 4.7% #4b69ff 4.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.07 on average: an expected loss of $25.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt