---
title: "CS:GO Weapon Case 3 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS:GO Weapon Case 3 ($7.49) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.04% from 16 items with odds, observed 89.18% over 285 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-3
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [CS:GO Weapon Case 3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-3)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · CS:GO Weapon Case 3

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-3?window=all)

Price · $7.49

Advertised RTP · 76.04% · EV $5.70 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.18% · 285 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 40.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 36 openings · below min

7 days · 89.64% ±11.15 267 openings

30 days · 89.18% ±10.80 285 openings

since tracking started · 89.18% ±10.80 285 openings

63.0% 94.0% 125.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.52% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.38% – 99.98%, 285 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-3?window=24h) | 36 | 93.95% ±30.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-3?window=7d) | 267 | 89.64% ±11.2 | +2.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-3) | 285 | 89.18% ±10.8 | +2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon-3?window=all) | 285 | 89.18% ±10.8 | +2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 286 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 9,821 | $428 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 9,730 | $372 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,189 | $101 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 3,874 | $96.28 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) | 1 in 2,645 | $79.64 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 113 | $23.99 | 3.7% | 8 | 2.5 | 3.17× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $14.88 | 7.5% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $11.19 | 10.2% | 21 | 14.8 | 1.42× |
| [Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $7.17 | 12.4% | 41 | 28.1 | 1.46× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $6.67 | 12.3% | 45 | 30.1 | 1.49× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 10.9% | $6.41 | 12.2% | 30 | 31.1 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 11.3% | $6.06 | 12.1% | 40 | 32.4 | 1.23× |
| [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $3.82 | 8.6% | 16 | 36.6 | 0.44× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-field-tested) | 12.1% | $3.04 | 6.5% | 21 | 34.6 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) | 12.0% | $2.96 | 6.2% | 26 | 34.2 | 0.76× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 11.5% | $2.72 | 5.5% | 19 | 32.9 | 0.58× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=weapon-3)

[USP-S | Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $7.49 $6.41 0.86x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Panther (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-field-tested) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $7.49 $3.04 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Panther (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-field-tested) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $7.49 $3.04 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $7.49 $2.96 0.40x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-minimal-wear) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $7.49 $6.67 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

[USP-S | Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $7.49 $6.41 0.86x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

[P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $7.49 $23.99 3.20x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-minimal-wear) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $7.49 $6.67 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

[Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-minimal-wear) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $7.49 $7.17 0.96x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $7.49 $6.07 0.81x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $7.49 | 76.04% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $7.49 | 75.84% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $7.49 | 75.66% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $7.49 | 75.63% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $7.49 | 75.93% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $7.49 | 76.29% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $7.49 | 76.27% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $7.49 | 76.25% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $7.49 | 76.31% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $7.49 | 76.39% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $7.49 | 76.82% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $7.49 | 76.78% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $7.49 | 76.77% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $7.49 | 76.82% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $7.49 | 76.80% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $7.49 | 76.80% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.83% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.77% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.79% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.79% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.81% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.71% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $7.49 | 76.87% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $7.49 | 77.20% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $7.49 | 77.21% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $7.49 | 77.11% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $7.49 | 76.79% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $7.49 | 76.89% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.49 | 76.91% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $7.49 | 76.89% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.0% classified 0.9% Classified 2.9% restricted 15.0% #8847ff 10.5% #4b69ff 22.4% violet 11.3% mil spec 24.8% Mil Spec Grade 12.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.04 on average: an expected loss of $23.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt