---
title: "CS:GO Weapon Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS:GO Weapon Case ($47.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.43% from 14 items with odds, observed 126.48% over 85 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [CS:GO Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · CS:GO Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon?window=all)

Price · $47.99

Advertised RTP · 75.43% · EV $36.20 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 126.48% · 85 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 77 openings · below min

30 days · 85 openings · below min

since tracking started · 85 openings · below min

74.5% 143.8% 213.0%

**Small sample.** 85 openings and 21.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon?window=24h) | 24 | 176.86% ±35.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon?window=7d) | 77 | 134.80% ±20.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon) | 85 | 126.48% ±19.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/weapon?window=all) | 85 | 126.48% ±19.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 85 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,987 | $817 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,554 | $464 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,271 | $429 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 705 | $344 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 330 | $262 | 2.2% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $205 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $146 | 6.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $127 | 7.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $72.83 | 16.8% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 14.0% | $55.19 | 21.3% | 10 | 11.9 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 14.7% | $53.49 | 21.7% | 19 | 12.5 | 1.52× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 20.9% | $11.67 | 6.7% | 10 | 17.7 | 0.56× |
| [AUG \| Wings (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-minimal-wear) | 19.0% | $10.29 | 5.4% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.93× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 18.1% | $9.63 | 4.8% | 7 | 15.4 | 0.46× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=weapon)

[USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $47.99 $55.27 1.15x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) [SEvER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SEvER) $47.99 $54.25 1.13x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) [cudimel.lule](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/cudimel.lule) $47.99 $11.73 0.24x 2026-11-11 05:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) [cudimel.lule](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/cudimel.lule) $47.99 $54.41 1.13x 2026-11-11 05:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) [cudimel.lule](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/cudimel.lule) $47.99 $54.41 1.13x 2026-11-11 05:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) [cudimel.lule](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/cudimel.lule) $47.99 $54.41 1.13x 2026-11-11 05:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) [PROFITEIRO REI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PROFITEIRO%20REI) $47.99 $54.46 1.13x 2026-11-11 04:54 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) [PROFITEIRO REI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PROFITEIRO%20REI) $47.99 $127 2.64x 2026-11-11 04:53 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) [Reserva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Reserva) $47.99 $11.75 0.24x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) [Reserva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Reserva) $47.99 $433 9.02x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $47.99 | 75.43% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $47.99 | 75.26% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $47.99 | 75.24% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $47.99 | 75.53% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $47.99 | 75.86% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $47.99 | 75.87% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $47.99 | 75.85% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $47.99 | 75.91% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $47.99 | 75.98% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $47.99 | 76.40% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $47.99 | 76.38% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $47.99 | 76.37% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $47.99 | 76.40% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $47.99 | 76.39% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $47.99 | 76.40% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $47.99 | 76.41% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $47.99 | 76.37% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $47.99 | 76.38% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $47.99 | 76.40% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $47.99 | 76.40% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $47.99 | 76.33% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $47.99 | 76.46% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $47.99 | 76.80% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $47.99 | 76.81% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $47.99 | 76.71% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $47.99 | 76.41% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $47.99 | 76.50% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $47.99 | 76.49% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $47.99 | 76.50% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $47.99 | 76.47% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% classified 2.8% Immortal 1.5% restricted 37.0% Rare 20.9% milspec 19.0% mil spec 18.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.43 on average: an expected loss of $24.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt