---
title: "Operation Wildfire Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Operation Wildfire Case ($1.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.58% from 23 items with odds, observed 84.94% over 246 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/wildfire
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Operation Wildfire Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/wildfire)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Operation Wildfire Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/wildfire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/wildfire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/wildfire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/wildfire?window=all)

Price · $1.79

Advertised RTP · 74.58% · EV $1.33 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.94% · 246 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 84.10% ±22.27 231 openings

30 days · 84.94% ±21.66 246 openings

since tracking started · 84.94% ±21.66 246 openings

12.5% 79.5% 146.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/wildfire?window=24h) | 24 | 79.35% ±66.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/wildfire?window=7d) | 231 | 84.10% ±22.3 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/wildfire) | 246 | 84.94% ±21.7 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/wildfire?window=all) | 246 | 84.94% ±21.7 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 246 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,968 | $161 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 9,923 | $120 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 9,897 | $109 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 9,814 | $89.02 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 9,619 | $69.63 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 9,584 | $67.57 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 9,343 | $57.50 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 8,976 | $48.93 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 8,925 | $48.05 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 8,905 | $47.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 6,372 | $28.60 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 2,569 | $16.58 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 700 | $9.89 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 631 | $9.52 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.73 | 8.3% | 18 | 10.0 | 1.80× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.95 | 11.2% | 11 | 18.9 | 0.58× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $1.92 | 11.3% | 7 | 19.3 | 0.36× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.70 | 12.0% | 36 | 23.2 | 1.55× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 11.7% | $1.41 | 12.4% | 34 | 28.8 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 14.7% | $0.97 | 10.7% | 11 | 36.3 | 0.30× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.90 | 10.1% | 10 | 36.8 | 0.27× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) | 14.9% | $0.72 | 8.0% | 35 | 36.6 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) | 14.2% | $0.62 | 6.6% | 8 | 35.0 | 0.23× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=wildfire)

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) [Boris\_Britva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Boris_Britva) $1.79 $0.72 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) [Boris\_Britva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Boris_Britva) $1.79 $1.94 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MAG-7 | Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) [Tokyo Ghilliaka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tokyo%20Ghilliaka) $1.79 $1.55 0.87x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC

[MAG-7 | Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) [Rigo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rigo) $1.79 $1.72 0.96x 2026-11-11 05:28 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) [Piratka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Piratka) $1.79 $1.97 1.10x 2026-11-10 21:19 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) [Piratka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Piratka) $1.79 $0.62 0.35x 2026-11-10 21:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $1.79 $1.97 1.10x 2026-11-10 20:38 UTC

[MP7 | Impire (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-field-tested) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $1.79 $1.96 1.09x 2026-11-10 20:38 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) [Hyper™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Hyper%E2%84%A2) $1.79 $1.97 1.10x 2026-11-10 20:37 UTC

[FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) [Hyper™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Hyper%E2%84%A2) $1.79 $2.72 1.52x 2026-11-10 20:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.79 | 74.58% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.79 | 74.36% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.79 | 74.30% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.79 | 74.58% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.79 | 74.96% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.79 | 75.07% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.79 | 74.99% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.79 | 75.03% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.79 | 75.04% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.79 | 75.51% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.79 | 75.42% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.79 | 75.48% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.79 | 75.48% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.79 | 75.42% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.79 | 75.46% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.61% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.48% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.41% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.59% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.52% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 75.48% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.79 | 75.56% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.79 | 75.81% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.79 | 75.84% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.79 | 75.74% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.79 | 75.46% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.79 | 75.45% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.79 | 75.58% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.79 | 75.53% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.79 | 75.54% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 0.3% restricted 21.4% #8847ff 7.7% violet 11.7% #4b69ff 29.0% mil spec 15.0% milspec 14.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.58 on average: an expected loss of $25.42 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt