---
title: "Winter Offensive Weapon Case on csgo.net: odds & RTP"
description: "Winter Offensive Weapon Case ($4.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.37% from 13 items with odds, observed 83.60% over 69 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/winter-offensive
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Winter Offensive Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/winter-offensive)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Winter Offensive Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/winter-offensive?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/winter-offensive?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/winter-offensive) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/winter-offensive?window=all)

Price · $4.79

Advertised RTP · 75.37% · EV $3.61 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.60% · 69 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 44.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 62 openings · below min

30 days · 69 openings · below min

since tracking started · 69 openings · below min

-0.5% 128.8% 258.0%

**Small sample.** 69 openings and 24.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/winter-offensive?window=24h) | 6 | 122.30% ±135.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/winter-offensive?window=7d) | 62 | 83.06% ±41.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/winter-offensive) | 69 | 83.60% ±40.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/winter-offensive?window=all) | 69 | 83.60% ±40.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 69 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 9,992 | $720 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 9,835 | $260 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 8,177 | $110 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 7,772 | $101 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,225 | $34.37 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 371 | $22.19 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 134 | $15.46 | 3.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $8.04 | 9.4% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $5.60 | 14.7% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.37× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-field-tested) | 12.3% | $4.90 | 16.6% | 13 | 8.5 | 1.54× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 17.4% | $3.94 | 19.0% | 17 | 12.0 | 1.42× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-field-tested) | 27.1% | $2.42 | 18.2% | 10 | 18.7 | 0.53× |
| [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-field-tested) | 28.4% | $1.65 | 13.0% | 9 | 19.6 | 0.46× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=winter-offensive)

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-minimal-wear) [shelp1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/shelp1k) $4.79 $2.92 0.61x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC

[Galil AR | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-field-tested) [shelp1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/shelp1k) $4.79 $1.73 0.36x 2026-11-10 21:31 UTC

[FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) [Boxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Boxi) $4.79 $8.04 1.68x 2026-11-10 18:42 UTC

[Nova | Rising Skull (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-field-tested) [Boxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Boxi) $4.79 $5.05 1.05x 2026-11-10 18:42 UTC

[P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) [Boxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Boxi) $4.79 $14.90 3.11x 2026-11-10 18:41 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-minimal-wear) [\_Tivali\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Tivali_) $4.79 $2.51 0.52x 2026-11-10 17:17 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) [trapaz01d](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/trapaz01d) $4.79 $3.93 0.82x 2026-11-09 20:45 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-field-tested) [ahmed mi allaah](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ahmed%20mi%20allaah) $4.79 $2.56 0.53x 2026-11-08 21:24 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-field-tested) [ahmed mi allaah](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ahmed%20mi%20allaah) $4.79 $2.56 0.53x 2026-11-08 21:24 UTC

[MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) [Tusk](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tusk) $4.79 $5.75 1.20x 2026-11-08 02:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.79 | 75.37% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.79 | 75.19% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.79 | 75.19% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.79 | 75.50% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.79 | 75.79% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.77% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.82% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.89% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.97% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.79 | 76.40% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.79 | 76.38% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.79 | 76.37% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.79 | 76.41% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.79 | 76.37% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.79 | 76.32% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.29% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.30% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.35% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.33% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.42% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.27% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.47% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.79 | 76.72% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.79 | 76.79% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.66% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.39% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.46% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.45% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.79 | 76.48% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $4.79 | 76.41% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% classified 1.1% Mythical 4.2% restricted 39.1% Rare 27.1% mil spec 28.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.37 on average: an expected loss of $24.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt