---
title: "Зелье ведьмы case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Зелье ведьмы ($0.10) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.70% from 30 items with odds, observed 86.63% over 586K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/witchsbrew
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Зелье ведьмы](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/witchsbrew)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Зелье ведьмы

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/witchsbrew?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/witchsbrew?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/witchsbrew) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/witchsbrew?window=all)

Price · $0.10

Advertised RTP · 74.70% · EV $0.07 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.63% · 586K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.40% ±0.59 66.8K openings

7 days · 86.46% ±0.22 467K openings

30 days · 86.63% ±0.20 586K openings

since tracking started · 86.63% ±0.20 586K openings

74.0% 80.8% 87.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 75.39% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (86.43% – 86.82%, 585,561 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/witchsbrew?window=24h) | 66.8K | 84.40% ±0.59 | +33.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/witchsbrew?window=7d) | 467K | 86.46% ±0.22 | +98.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/witchsbrew) | 586K | 86.63% ±0.20 | +111.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/witchsbrew?window=all) | 586K | 86.63% ±0.20 | +111.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 586K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 9,828 | $3.53 | 0.5% | 143 | 59.6 | 2.40× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 9,722 | $3.00 | 0.4% | 148 | 60.3 | 2.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 9,625 | $2.70 | 0.4% | 176 | 60.9 | 2.89× |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-well-worn) | 1 in 9,442 | $2.35 | 0.3% | 127 | 62.0 | 2.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 8,649 | $1.70 | 0.3% | 184 | 67.7 | 2.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) | 1 in 7,737 | $1.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 75.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 5,946 | $1.04 | 0.2% | 256 | 98.5 | 2.60× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 5,338 | $0.96 | 0.2% | 296 | 109.7 | 2.70× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 1 in 5,062 | $0.92 | 0.2% | 324 | 115.7 | 2.80× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 4,380 | $0.84 | 0.3% | 361 | 133.8 | 2.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 2,427 | $0.62 | 0.3% | 712 | 241.4 | 2.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 1 in 1,851 | $0.56 | 0.4% | 956 | 316.5 | 3.02× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 1 in 601 | $0.36 | 0.8% | 2,564 | 975.0 | 2.63× |
| [Charm \| Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) | 1 in 392 | $0.31 | 1.1% | 4,564 | 1495.1 | 3.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $0.22 | 1.8% | 4,725 | 3602.7 | 1.31× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.15 | 3.4% | 0 | 9696.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.14 | 3.8% | 3,850 | 11752.4 | 0.33× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $0.14 | 3.9% | 13,710 | 12417.5 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $0.14 | 4.0% | 19,813 | 12541.2 | 1.58× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $0.13 | 4.5% | 9,491 | 15563.4 | 0.61× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.11 | 5.4% | 28,824 | 21666.6 | 1.33× |
| [Charm \| Fluffy charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-fluffy) | 1 in 21 | $0.10 | 6.1% | 36,405 | 27702.7 | 1.31× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.08 | 7.1% | 10,049 | 39999.7 | 0.25× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.07 | 7.5% | 1,338 | 45450.2 | 0.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.06 | 7.9% | 41,910 | 55775.4 | 0.75× |
| [P250 \| Re.built (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-field-tested) | 10.3% | $0.06 | 7.9% | 78,110 | 60323.6 | 1.29× |
| [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-field-tested) | 10.5% | $0.06 | 7.9% | 80,359 | 61767.0 | 1.30× |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) | 10.5% | $0.06 | 7.9% | 46,805 | 61646.9 | 0.76× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.05 | 7.7% | 0 | 70092.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Base-2 (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-base-2-field-tested) | 12.3% | $0.05 | 7.6% | 0 | 71959.5 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=witchsbrew)

[P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-field-tested) [samarov2026](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/samarov2026) $0.10 $0.06 0.57x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-well-worn) [samarov2026](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/samarov2026) $0.10 $0.08 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-field-tested) [samarov2026](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/samarov2026) $0.10 $0.06 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $0.10 $0.05 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-well-worn) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $0.10 $0.08 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-field-tested) [samarov2026](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/samarov2026) $0.10 $0.16 1.57x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-field-tested) [samarov2026](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/samarov2026) $0.10 $0.06 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-field-tested) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $0.10 $0.06 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $0.10 $0.06 0.60x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $0.10 $0.13 1.26x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.10 | 74.70% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.10 | 74.55% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.10 | 74.28% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.10 | 74.09% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.10 | 74.56% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.10 | 74.93% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.98% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.79% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.83% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.96% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.10 | 75.57% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.10 | 75.52% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.10 | 75.45% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.10 | 75.63% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.10 | 75.47% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.10 | 75.43% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.54% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.47% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.44% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.43% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.58% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.41% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.66% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.10 | 75.84% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.10 | 75.78% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.84% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.32% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.55% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.72% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.10 | 75.48% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 0.1% violet 0.0% Industrial Grade 0.0% Mythical 0.0% #8847ff 0.2% uncommon 0.3% Rare 0.6% Uncommon 1.7% #4b69ff 27.6% milspec 33.6% blue 11.6% industrial 24.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.70 on average: an expected loss of $25.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt