--- title: "XRP case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "XRP ($14.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.87% from 2 items with odds, observed 130.39% over 225 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/xrp rendered: 2026-11-11T17:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [XRP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/xrp) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · XRP A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/xrp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/xrp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/xrp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/xrp?window=all) Price · $14.99 Advertised RTP · 76.87% · EV $11.52 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 130.39% · 225 openings, odds method Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 49 openings · below min 7 days · 141.20% ±33.73 196 openings 30 days · 130.39% ±31.50 225 openings since tracking started · 130.39% ±31.50 225 openings 67.0% 134.0% 201.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.39% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (98.89% – 161.89%, 225 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/xrp?window=24h) | 49 | 134.20% ±66.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/xrp?window=7d) | 196 | 141.20% ±33.7 | +3.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/xrp) | 225 | 130.39% ±31.5 | +3.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/xrp?window=all) | 225 | 130.39% ±31.5 | +3.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 225 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $124 | 99.2% | 34 | 20.8 | 1.64× | | [Charm \| Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) | 90.8% | $0.10 | 0.8% | 190 | 204.2 | 0.93× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=xrp) [Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [simply lovely](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/simply%20lovely) $14.99 $0.11 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC [Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $14.99 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC [Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $14.99 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC [Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [Desperado](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Desperado) $14.99 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [Desperado](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Desperado) $14.99 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [Desperado](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Desperado) $14.99 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [Desperado](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Desperado) $14.99 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [Desperado](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Desperado) $14.99 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) [Desperado](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Desperado) $14.99 $124 8.26x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [WHO&SOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/WHO%26SOS) $14.99 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $14.99 | 76.87% | 2 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $14.99 | 76.68% | 2 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $14.99 | 76.50% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $14.99 | 76.48% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $14.99 | 76.78% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $14.99 | 77.12% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $14.99 | 77.12% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $14.99 | 77.10% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $14.99 | 77.17% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $14.99 | 77.23% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $14.99 | 77.67% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $14.99 | 77.64% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $14.99 | 77.63% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $14.99 | 77.65% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $14.99 | 77.66% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $14.99 | 77.66% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.67% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.64% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.65% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.66% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.66% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $14.99 | 77.59% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $14.99 | 77.72% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $14.99 | 78.07% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $14.99 | 78.08% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $14.99 | 77.98% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $14.99 | 77.67% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $14.99 | 77.77% | 2 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $14.99 | 77.75% | 2 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $14.99 | 77.76% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 9.2% Rare 90.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.87 on average: an expected loss of $23.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt