---
title: "10% Knife case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "10% Knife ($20.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 20 items with odds, observed 54.16% over 149 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [10% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 10% Knife

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1?window=all)

Price · $20.00 · 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $18.00 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 54.16% · 149 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 22 openings · below min

7 days · 57.97% ±49.49 133 openings

30 days · 54.16% ±46.76 149 openings

since tracking started · 54.16% ±46.76 149 openings

-0.5% 87.0% 174.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1?window=24h) | 22 | 52.37% ±121.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1?window=7d) | 133 | 57.97% ±49.5 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1) | 149 | 54.16% ±46.8 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1?window=all) | 149 | 54.16% ±46.8 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 149 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,500 2,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,200 2,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $442 442 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $439 439 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 159 | $330 330 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $130 130 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.5% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $126 126 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.5% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $115 115 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.2% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $72.00 72 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.0% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $37.59 37.59 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.4% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $31.34 31.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.22× |
| [Sticker \| G2 Esports \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-g2-esports-cologne-2016) | 1 in 12 | $5.71 5.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 13 | 12.2 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 13.6% | $4.11 4.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 20 | 20.3 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $1.58 1.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-battle-scarred) | 10.9% | $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 16 | 16.2 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Snappi (Holo) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snappi-holo-rio-2022) | 1 in 10 | $0.53 0.53 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 27 | 22.3 | 1.21× |
| [Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) | 12.3% | $0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 22 | 18.3 | 1.20× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.12 0.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.46× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Ninja (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ninja-blood-red) | 1 in 24 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1)

[MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC

[Sticker | Snappi (Holo) | Rio 2022 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snappi-holo-rio-2022) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.53 0.53 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC

[Sticker | G2 Esports | Cologne 2016 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-g2-esports-cologne-2016) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.71 5.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.29x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC

[Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) [RuffandReady](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/RuffandReady) $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.11 4.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-battle-scarred) [WigSplitta](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/WigSplitta) $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 04:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 04:00 UTC

[Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 04:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 90.00% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% knifes 0.0% covert knife 3.4% #EB4B4B 0.6% gold 1.5% Covert 1.5% Immortal 3.0% restricted 5.5% classified 16.4% #4B69FF 8.2% violet 6.8% #8847FF 10.9% #D32CE6 9.5% milspec 15.0% Industrial Grade 12.3% Consumer Grade 1.4% #B0C3D9 4.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt