--- title: "Toxic Sludge case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Toxic Sludge ($200.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/100 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Toxic Sludge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/100) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Toxic Sludge A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/100?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/100?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/100) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/100?window=all) Price · $200.00 · 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $180.00 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/100?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/100?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/100) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/100?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,300 1,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 36.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $550 550 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $410 410 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $317 317 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $251 251 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $71.36 71.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $69.99 69.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $38.18 38.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $36.01 36.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $22.00 22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-well-worn) | 1 in 160 | $9.84 9.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir MP7 \| Army Recon (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-army-recon-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $8.45 8.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $4.69 4.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $4.25 4.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $3.03 3.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Gamma Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-case) | 10.6% | $1.04 1.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-outbreak-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.56 0.56 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-outbreak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.26 0.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=100`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=100) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $200 | 90.00% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 14.9% Covert 3.7% #ffd700 9.9% Ancient 4.3% covert 11.8% Mythical 11.8% Restricted 3.1% #8847ff 2.5% #B0C3D9 8.7% classified 1.2% #4B69FF 1.9% base 10.6% milspec 7.4% Mil Spec Grade 8.1% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt