--- title: "Grim case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Grim ($1,380.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.56% from 24 items with odds, observed 89.69% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10003 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Grim](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10003) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Grim A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10003?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10003?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10003) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10003?window=all) Price · $1,380.00 · 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.56% · EV $1,208.36 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.69% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 19.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 59 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 223.0% 446.5% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10003?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10003?window=7d) | 6 | 89.69% ±356.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10003) | 6 | 89.69% ±356.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10003?window=all) | 6 | 89.69% ±356.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $238K 238,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,111 | $93K 93,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $91K 91,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $53K 53,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $53K 53,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $30K 30,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $22.4K 22,436 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $21K 21,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $17.3K 17,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $16K 16,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $12.3K 12,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $11K 11,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 500 | $10.4K 10,450 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $7,200 7,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6,026 6,026 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $4,900 4,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3,225 3,225 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3,084 3,084 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 167 | $2,383 2,383 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,949 1,949 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1,400 1,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 80.0% | $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10003`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,380 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN $6,026 6,026 CSGOBIG\_COIN 4.37x 2026-11-08 19:20 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $1,380 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,400 1,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.01x 2026-11-08 19:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=10003) [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,380 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN $6,026 6,026 CSGOBIG\_COIN 4.37x 2026-11-08 19:20 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,380 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:20 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $1,380 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,400 1,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.01x 2026-11-08 19:20 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [drew](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/drew) $1,380 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:20 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,380 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:20 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,380 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,380 | 87.56% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 12.0% legendary 0.8% extraordinary 6.2% Covert 1.0% consumer 80.0% best hit $6,026 (4.37x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.56 on average: an expected loss of $12.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt