---
title: "Drew Budget case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Drew Budget ($112.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.00% from 22 items with odds, observed 18.95% over 4 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10005
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Drew Budget](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10005)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Drew Budget

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10005?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10005?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10005) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10005?window=all)

Price · $112.00 · 112 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 85.00% · EV $95.20 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 18.95% · 4 openings, odds method

Variance · 17.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 43 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 4 openings · below min

30 days · 4 openings · below min

since tracking started · 4 openings · below min

-0.5% 212.5% 425.5%

**Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10005?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10005?window=7d) | 4 | 18.95% ±405.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10005) | 4 | 18.95% ±405.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10005?window=all) | 4 | 18.95% ±405.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,872 9,872 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $5,965 5,965 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $2,405 2,405 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,380 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $792 792 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 125 | $653 653 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $376 376 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $353 353 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $278 278 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $205 205 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $174 174 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $160 160 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $133 133 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $92.91 92.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $86.84 86.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $43.23 43.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $34.69 34.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $29.25 29.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $18.69 18.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.98 4.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 22.5% | $3.49 3.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) | 22.5% | $0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10005`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=10005)

[USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $112 112 CSGOBIG\_COIN $43.23 43.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.39x 2026-11-09 00:39 UTC

[Souvenir Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $112 112 CSGOBIG\_COIN $34.69 34.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.31x 2026-11-09 00:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $112 112 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.49 3.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 00:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $112 112 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.49 3.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 00:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $112 | 85.00% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 0.1% covert 37.2% restricted 8.5% Covert 0.8% Restricted 3.0% Industrial Grade 2.0% #4B69FF 3.4% industrial 22.5% blue 22.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.00 on average: an expected loss of $15.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt