--- title: "Mercy case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mercy ($183.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 11 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10008 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Mercy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10008) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Mercy A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10008?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10008?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10008) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10008?window=all) Price · $183.00 · 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $160.12 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 12.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10008?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10008?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10008) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10008?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $17.7K 17,704 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $6,401 6,401 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $2,220 2,220 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $548 548 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $464 464 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $428 428 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 13 | $199 199 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 20.0% | $27.22 27.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 23.0% | $18.98 18.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 21.0% | $4.90 4.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10008`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=10008) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $183 | 87.50% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 52.0% classified 24.0% rare 4.0% restricted 5.0% #ffd700 15.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt