--- title: "Elder case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Elder ($16.12) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 20 items with odds, observed 64.47% over 19 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10031 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Elder](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10031) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Elder A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10031?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10031?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10031) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10031?window=all) Price · $16.12 · 16.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $14.10 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.47% · 19 openings, odds method Variance · 181.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 9 openings · below min 30 days · 19 openings · below min since tracking started · 19 openings · below min -0.5% 800.0% 1600.5% **Small sample.** 19 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10031?window=24h) | 3 | 74.75% ±1525.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10031?window=7d) | 9 | 97.46% ±880.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10031) | 19 | 64.47% ±606.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10031?window=all) | 19 | 64.47% ±606.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $55.6K 55,565 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $7,830 7,830 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,780 7,780 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,150 7,150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,550 4,550 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,525 2,525 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,278 1,278 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $720 720 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $400 400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $258 258 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $170 170 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $84.78 84.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $65.90 65.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $41.66 41.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Operation Bravo Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-bravo-case) | 1 in 33 | $32.95 32.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $22.35 22.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $15.78 15.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $12.35 12.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-gold-rio-2022) | 1 in 100 | $6.03 6.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) | 81.3% | $1.60 1.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.2% | 15 | 15.5 | 0.97× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10031`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=10031) [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.12 16.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.60 1.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.12 16.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.60 1.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [Operation Bravo Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-bravo-case) Hidden $16.12 16.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $32.95 32.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.04x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.12 16.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.60 1.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-08 08:29 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.12 16.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $65.90 65.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN 4.09x 2026-11-08 08:29 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.12 16.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.60 1.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-07 17:40 UTC [Operation Bravo Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-bravo-case) Hidden $16.12 16.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $32.95 32.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.04x 2026-11-07 17:40 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.12 16.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.60 1.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-07 17:40 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [Pomeleone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Pomeleone) $16.12 16.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.60 1.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-07 17:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $16.12 | 87.49% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.5% contraband 0.0% legendary 0.0% restricted 87.4% base 3.0% classified 1.0% #EB4B4B 1.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt