--- title: "Stonks Surge case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stonks Surge ($30.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 13 items with odds, observed 16.47% over 40 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1005 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Stonks Surge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1005) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Stonks Surge A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1005?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1005?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1005) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1005?window=all) Price · $30.00 · 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $27.00 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 16.47% · 40 openings, odds method Variance · 45.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 5 openings · below min 7 days · 38 openings · below min 30 days · 40 openings · below min since tracking started · 40 openings · below min -0.5% 297.0% 594.5% **Small sample.** 40 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1005?window=24h) | 5 | 2.53% ±591.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1005?window=7d) | 38 | 17.33% ±214.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1005) | 40 | 16.47% ±209.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1005?window=all) | 40 | 16.47% ±209.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $3,398 3,398 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 31.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $1,655 1,655 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $947 947 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $378 378 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $183 183 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $130 130 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $76.21 76.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $60.74 60.74 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $45.00 45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $2.20 2.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 12 | 10.0 | 1.20× | | [Negev \| dev\_texture (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-well-worn) | 25.0% | $0.79 0.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 6 | 10.0 | 0.60× | | [AUG \| Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 16 | 12.0 | 1.33× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1005`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1005) [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:09 UTC [Negev | dev\_texture (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-well-worn) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.79 0.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 06:09 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.20 2.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 06:09 UTC [Negev | dev\_texture (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-well-worn) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.79 0.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 06:09 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) [Default Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Default%20Name) $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:09 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.20 2.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-10 09:39 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.20 2.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 07:50 UTC [Negev | dev\_texture (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-well-worn) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.79 0.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 07:50 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.20 2.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-09 07:50 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 08:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $30.00 | 90.00% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.8% legendary 0.3% restricted 25.0% violet 25.0% #777777 10.0% #B0C3D9 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt