--- title: "Headed case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Headed ($572.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 0.01% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10074 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Headed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10074) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Headed A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10074?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10074?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10074) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10074?window=all) Price · $572.00 · 572 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $514.78 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 0.01% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 28.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 214.3% 429.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10074?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10074?window=7d) | 6 | 0.01% ±428.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10074) | 6 | 0.01% ±428.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/10074?window=all) | 6 | 0.01% ±428.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $69.5K 69,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $21.1K 21,053 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $16.1K 16,141 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $13.8K 13,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $4,637 4,637 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $4,300 4,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 50 | $3,322 3,322 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Eat It (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-brick-red) | 93.3% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10074`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=10074) [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-brick-red) Hidden $572 572 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-brick-red) Hidden $572 572 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-brick-red) Hidden $572 572 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-brick-red) Hidden $572 572 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-brick-red) [Dabbed | 7k weekly LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Dabbed%20%7C%207k%20weekly%20LB) $572 572 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-brick-red) Hidden $572 572 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $572 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.4% covert 4.7% classified 1.6% #B0C3D9 93.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt