--- title: "Crusty case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Crusty ($0.62) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 36.80% over 11 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1008 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Crusty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1008) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Crusty A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1008?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1008?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1008) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1008?window=all) Price · $0.62 · 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $0.56 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 36.80% · 11 openings, odds method Variance · 238.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 11 openings · below min 30 days · 11 openings · below min since tracking started · 11 openings · below min -0.5% 1517.8% 3036.0% **Small sample.** 11 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1008?window=24h) | 1 | 8.06% ±3027.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1008?window=7d) | 11 | 36.80% ±912.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1008) | 11 | 36.80% ±912.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1008?window=all) | 11 | 36.80% ±912.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $950 950 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $28.72 28.72 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $9.75 9.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $4.94 4.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.93 2.93 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.47 1.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 30.9% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× | | [Negev \| dev\_texture (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-well-worn) | 15.0% | $0.25 0.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× | | [Sticker \| Ready For Battle sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ready-for-battle) | 22.0% | $0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1008`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1008) [Sticker | Ready For Battle sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ready-for-battle) [javiSchz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/javiSchz) $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-10 15:49 UTC [Sticker | Ready For Battle sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ready-for-battle) [Default Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Default%20Name) $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-06 23:10 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) [Default Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Default%20Name) $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-06 23:09 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) [Default Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Default%20Name) $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-06 23:09 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) [Default Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Default%20Name) $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-06 23:09 UTC [Negev | dev\_texture (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-well-worn) Hidden $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.25 0.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.40x 2026-11-05 15:29 UTC [SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.11x 2026-11-05 15:29 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) [the ghost of the uchiha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/the%20ghost%20of%20the%20uchiha) $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 15:29 UTC [SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) Hidden $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.11x 2026-11-05 15:29 UTC [Sticker | Ready For Battle sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ready-for-battle) Hidden $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-05 15:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.62 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.0% covert 0.1% classified 0.4% pink 1.0% #d32ee6 2.0% restricted 4.5% #8847ff 25.0% violet 15.0% #4B69FF 22.0% #B0C3D9 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt