---
title: "1% Jackpot case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "1% Jackpot ($29.50) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 20 items with odds, observed 258.32% over 224 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1019
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [1% Jackpot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1019)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 1% Jackpot

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1019?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1019?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1019) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1019?window=all)

Price · $29.50 · 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $26.55 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 258.32% · 224 openings, odds method

Variance · 304.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 909 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 36 openings · below min

7 days · 176 openings · below min

30 days · 224 openings · below min

since tracking started · 224 openings · below min

-0.5% 285.0% 570.5%

**Small sample.** 224 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1019?window=24h) | 36 | 0.03% ±569.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1019?window=7d) | 176 | 246.84% ±257.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1019) | 224 | 258.32% ±228.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1019?window=all) | 224 | 258.32% ±228.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 224 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $34.9K 34,865 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $18.7K 18,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $14.6K 14,564 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.8K 12,814 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $9,340 9,340 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $8,020 8,020 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $6,558 6,558 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $4,253 4,253 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $3,359 3,359 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,901 2,901 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,667 | $2,434 2,434 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,899 1,899 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,519 1,519 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,298 1,298 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $935 935 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $851 851 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $650 650 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $492 492 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 50.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 127 | 112.0 | 1.13× |
| [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 49.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 95 | 109.8 | 0.87× |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1019`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [Mexi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Mexi) $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $12.8K 12,814 CSGOBIG\_COIN 434.4x 2026-11-07 14:49 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4,253 4,253 CSGOBIG\_COIN 144.2x 2026-11-04 03:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1019)

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) [zei](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/zei) $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $29.50 29.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $29.50 | 90.01% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% contraband 0.0% legendary 0.0% sunny 0.1% consumer 50.0% #B0C3D9 49.0% best hit $12.8K (434.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt