---
title: "5% Doppler case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "5% Doppler ($142.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 9.73% over 50 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1020
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [5% Doppler](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1020)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 5% Doppler

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1020?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1020?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1020) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1020?window=all)

Price · $142.00 · 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $127.80 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 9.73% · 50 openings, odds method

Variance · 29.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 47 openings · below min

30 days · 50 openings · below min

since tracking started · 50 openings · below min

-0.5% 346.5% 693.5%

**Small sample.** 50 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1020?window=24h) | 3 | 81.04% ±611.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1020?window=7d) | 47 | 10.35% ±154.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1020) | 50 | 9.73% ±149.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1020?window=all) | 50 | 9.73% ±149.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $7,925 7,925 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 31.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $5,532 5,532 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 21.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $3,797 3,797 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $2,441 2,441 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $1,902 1,902 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $1,282 1,282 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $1,085 1,085 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $762 762 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $488 488 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $345 345 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 50.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 30 | 25.0 | 1.20× |
| [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 45.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 18 | 22.5 | 0.80× |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1020`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1020)

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $142 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $142 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $142 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN $345 345 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.43x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $142 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:48 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $142 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 18:20 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $142 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 18:20 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $142 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 18:20 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $142 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 18:20 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Getty](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Getty) $142 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN $345 345 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.43x 2026-11-09 18:20 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $142 142 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $142 | 90.00% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.5% Covert 0.5% consumer 50.0% #B0C3D9 45.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt