--- title: "Muffin case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Muffin ($16.90) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 14 items with odds, observed 39.82% over 19 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1021 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Muffin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1021) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Muffin A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1021?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1021?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1021) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1021?window=all) Price · $16.90 · 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $15.20 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 39.82% · 19 openings, odds method Variance · 17.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 7 openings · below min 7 days · 19 openings · below min 30 days · 19 openings · below min since tracking started · 19 openings · below min -0.5% 157.3% 315.0% **Small sample.** 19 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1021?window=24h) | 7 | 1.94% ±312.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1021?window=7d) | 19 | 39.82% ±189.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1021) | 19 | 39.82% ±189.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1021?window=all) | 19 | 39.82% ±189.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,743 2,743 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $880 880 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $466 466 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $234 234 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $131 131 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $92.00 92 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $56.15 56.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $32.78 32.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 10.0% | $18.81 18.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.4% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $10.95 10.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.61 6.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $2.23 2.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× | | [Sticker \| Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) | 10.0% | $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 46.6% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 14 | 8.8 | 1.58× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1021`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1021) [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $16.90 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $16.90 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $16.90 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $16.90 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $16.90 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [PP-Bizon | High Roller (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.90 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.23 2.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $16.90 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $16.90 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 00:20 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [Darth Dementia](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Darth%20Dementia) $16.90 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $56.15 56.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 3.32x 2026-11-10 00:20 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) Hidden $16.90 16.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $56.15 56.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 3.32x 2026-11-10 00:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $16.90 | 89.94% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 27.3% rare 0.1% extraordinary 2.0% Ancient 6.0% #d32ee6 8.0% #4b69ff 10.0% #B0C3D9 46.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt