--- title: "Dust II case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dust II ($1.71) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 29.54% over 33 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1022 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Dust II](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1022) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Dust II A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1022?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1022?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1022) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1022?window=all) Price · $1.71 · 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1.54 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 29.54% · 33 openings, odds method Variance · 284.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 556 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 19 openings · below min 30 days · 33 openings · below min since tracking started · 33 openings · below min -0.5% 1170.0% 2340.5% **Small sample.** 33 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1022?window=24h) | 2 | 0.58% ±2339.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1022?window=7d) | 19 | 39.43% ±759.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1022) | 33 | 29.54% ±575.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1022?window=all) | 33 | 29.54% ±575.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,046 2,046 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,324 1,324 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,042 1,042 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $489 489 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $292 292 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $249 249 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $168 168 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $113 113 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $9.38 9.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3.75 3.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.94 1.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $1.62 1.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.47 0.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.18 0.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Tombstone (Battle Green) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-tombstone-battle-green) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 25.2% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.32× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1022`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1022) [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $1.71 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:59 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $1.71 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-well-worn) Hidden $1.71 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.47 0.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.27x 2026-11-09 16:39 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.71 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.62 1.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.95x 2026-11-09 04:00 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.71 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.18 0.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-09 04:00 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.71 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.62 1.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.95x 2026-11-09 04:00 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) [SQUIRTLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/SQUIRTLE) $1.71 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.75 3.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.19x 2026-11-09 04:00 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Tombstone (Battle Green) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-tombstone-battle-green) Hidden $1.71 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 04:00 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $1.71 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 04:00 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $1.71 1.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-07 12:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.71 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% #EB4B4B 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% #8847FF 15.5% restricted 9.0% industrial 10.0% violet 20.0% common 20.0% #B0C3D9 25.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt