--- title: "Mirage case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mirage ($5.25) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 17 items with odds, observed 31.30% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1024 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1024) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Mirage A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1024?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1024?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1024) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1024?window=all) Price · $5.25 · 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $4.73 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 31.30% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 62.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min -0.5% 232.0% 464.5% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1024?window=24h) | 12 | 16.62% ±447.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1024?window=7d) | 24 | 31.30% ±316.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1024) | 24 | 31.30% ±316.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1024?window=all) | 24 | 31.30% ±316.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,914 2,914 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,894 1,894 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,340 1,340 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,128 1,128 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $910 910 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $669 669 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $446 446 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $244 244 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $130 130 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2015-mirage-souvenir-package) | 1 in 200 | $52.97 52.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/boston-2018-mirage-souvenir-package) | 1 in 50 | $30.39 30.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $15.98 15.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 33.8% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [Mirage Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/mirage-pin) | 10.0% | $9.62 9.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.4% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/rio-2022-mirage-souvenir-package) | 1 in 20 | $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× | | [10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/10-year-birthday-sticker-capsule) | 10.0% | $1.10 1.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× | | [Sticker \| TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) | 15.0% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 47.4% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 14 | 11.4 | 1.23× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1024`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1024) [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $5.25 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $5.25 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $5.25 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $5.25 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $5.25 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $5.25 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/rio-2022-mirage-souvenir-package) Hidden $5.25 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.59x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $5.25 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/rio-2022-mirage-souvenir-package) Hidden $5.25 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.59x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $5.25 5.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.25 | 90.01% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% #B0C3D9 54.9% #8847FF 10.0% exotic 10.0% Base Grade 10.0% high 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt