--- title: "Nuke case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nuke ($22.42) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 18 items with odds, observed 61.38% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1025 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Nuke](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1025) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Nuke A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1025?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1025?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1025) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1025?window=all) Price · $22.42 · 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $20.17 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 61.38% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 52.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 11 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 243.0% 486.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1025?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1025?window=7d) | 11 | 58.14% ±427.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1025) | 16 | 61.38% ±354.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1025?window=all) | 16 | 61.38% ±354.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,549 9,549 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,346 7,346 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $5,350 5,350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,459 3,459 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,969 1,969 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $731 731 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $575 575 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $429 429 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $292 292 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $195 195 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $153 153 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $96.00 96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $46.88 46.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $27.29 27.29 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.3% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.97 11.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 5 | 1.6 | 3.13× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 10.0% | $4.64 4.64 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.99 2.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 35.8% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.52× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1025`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1025) [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) [ROSSI - SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/ROSSI%20-%20SKINS) $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN $27.29 27.29 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.22x 2026-11-07 10:09 UTC [MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) Hidden $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.99 2.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-07 06:19 UTC [FAMAS | Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) Hidden $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN $11.97 11.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-07 06:19 UTC [MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) [PhukFace](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/PhukFace) $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.99 2.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-06 07:09 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 07:09 UTC [FAMAS | Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) Hidden $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN $11.97 11.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-06 07:09 UTC [FAMAS | Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) Hidden $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN $11.97 11.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-06 07:09 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN $27.29 27.29 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.22x 2026-11-06 07:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.42 | 89.99% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.6% contraband 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% epic 0.1% restricted 10.1% gold 0.1% covert knife 0.3% #eb4b4b 1.0% classified 15.0% Mythical 20.0% #B0C3D9 35.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt