---
title: "Overpass case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Overpass ($50.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 15 items with odds, observed 144.41% over 7 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1026
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Overpass](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1026)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Overpass

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1026?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1026?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1026) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1026?window=all)

Price · $50.00 · 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $44.98 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 144.41% · 7 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 3 openings · below min

30 days · 7 openings · below min

since tracking started · 7 openings · below min

33.5% 208.5% 383.5%

**Small sample.** 7 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1026?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1026?window=7d) | 3 | 213.94% ±168.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1026) | 7 | 144.41% ±110.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1026?window=all) | 7 | 144.41% ±110.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,876 1,876 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,008 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-well-worn) | 1 in 1,042 | $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 27.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 10.4% | $103 103 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.8% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sticker \| Lucky (Gold) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucky-gold-berlin-2019) | 10.4% | $68.53 68.53 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.8% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 11.2% | $41.18 41.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez \| SEAL Frogman agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmdr-davida-goggles-fernandez-seal-frogman) | 1 in 11 | $29.07 29.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $21.39 21.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.47 16.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Autograph Capsule \| Flipsid3 Tactics \| Cologne 2015 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-flipsid3-tactics-cologne-2015) | 1 in 27 | $13.31 13.31 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $10.93 10.93 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $9.10 9.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Autograph Capsule \| Fnatic \| MLG Columbus 2016 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-fnatic-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 96 | $7.58 7.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) | 30.9% | $6.37 6.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1026`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1026)

[★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.98x 2026-11-05 11:49 UTC

[Sticker | Lucky (Gold) | Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucky-gold-berlin-2019) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $68.53 68.53 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.37x 2026-11-05 11:49 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Rassel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Rassel) $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $103 103 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.07x 2026-11-05 11:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $50.00 | 89.97% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 37.9% classified 0.1% covert knife 18.6% #EB4B4B 10.4% restricted 11.2% red 8.8% Restricted 5.0% #B0C3D9 4.7% Industrial Grade 2.0% Legendary 1.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt