---
title: "Train case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Train ($68.82) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 21 items with odds, observed 2.43% over 3 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1032
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Train](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1032)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Train

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1032?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1032?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1032) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1032?window=all)

Price · $68.82 · 68.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $61.92 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 2.43% · 3 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 3 openings · below min

30 days · 3 openings · below min

since tracking started · 3 openings · below min

-0.5% 94.5% 189.5%

**Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1032?window=24h) | 3 | 2.43% ±186.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1032?window=7d) | 3 | 2.43% ±186.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1032) | 3 | 2.43% ±186.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1032?window=all) | 3 | 2.43% ±186.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,445 2,445 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,730 1,730 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,380 1,380 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $809 809 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $713 713 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $634 634 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $496 496 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $398 398 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $292 292 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $195 195 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $115 115 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $92.76 92.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 10.0% | $83.35 83.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-battle-scarred) | 17.0% | $68.64 68.64 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 15.0% | $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) | 20.0% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 18.6% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1032`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1032)

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $68.82 68.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $68.82 68.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) Hidden $68.82 68.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $68.82 | 89.98% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Classified 0.0% covert 14.2% gold 0.1% rare 0.1% extraordinary 22.0% covert knife 10.0% industrial 15.0% blue 20.0% #B0C3D9 18.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt