--- title: "Prisma case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Prisma ($2.92) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 30 items with odds, observed 45.90% over 40 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1038 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Prisma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1038) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Prisma A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1038?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1038?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1038) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1038?window=all) Price · $2.92 · 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2.63 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 45.90% · 40 openings, odds method Variance · 424.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 192 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 5 openings · below min 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 40 openings · below min since tracking started · 40 openings · below min -0.5% 907.5% 1815.5% **Small sample.** 40 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1038?window=24h) | 5 | 9.52% ±1805.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1038?window=7d) | 28 | 38.17% ±762.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1038) | 40 | 45.90% ±638.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1038?window=all) | 40 | 45.90% ±638.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,565 5,565 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 21.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,537 1,537 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,150 1,150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $795 795 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $520 520 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $480 480 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $270 270 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $208 208 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 5,000 | $201 201 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $127 127 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $125 125 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $88.26 88.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-incinegator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $47.35 47.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $26.70 26.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $14.17 14.17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.46 5.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.4% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.90 3.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Gauss (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-gauss-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.50 3.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.3% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.86 1.86 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.26 1.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Akoben (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-akoben-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.82 0.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.51 0.51 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× | | [FAMAS \| Crypsis (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-crypsis-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [P90 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Verdigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.17 0.17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | | [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.15 0.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× | | [MP7 \| Mischief (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 1 in 10 | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1038`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1038) [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $2.92 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Akoben (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-akoben-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.92 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.82 0.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.28x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $2.92 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-crypsis-factory-new) Hidden $2.92 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Whitefish (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-field-tested) Hidden $2.92 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.15 0.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.92 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.46 5.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.87x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) Hidden $2.92 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.86 1.86 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.64x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC [R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) Hidden $2.92 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.26 1.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.43x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC [R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) Hidden $2.92 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.26 1.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.43x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC [P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.92 2.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.17 0.17 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-09 13:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.92 | 90.00% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.4% epic 0.0% #EB4B4B 0.0% classified 5.6% restricted 24.0% Restricted 10.0% Rare 7.0% milspec 8.0% mil spec 35.0% #B0C3D9 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt