---
title: "Danger Zone case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Danger Zone ($1.61) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 27 items with odds, observed 41.53% over 38 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1039
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Danger Zone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1039)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Danger Zone

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1039?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1039?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1039) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1039?window=all)

Price · $1.61 · 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1.45 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 41.53% · 38 openings, odds method

Variance · 457.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 1,000 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 26 openings · below min

30 days · 38 openings · below min

since tracking started · 38 openings · below min

-0.5% 435.8% 872.0%

**Small sample.** 38 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1039?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1039?window=7d) | 26 | 49.14% ±822.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1039) | 38 | 41.53% ±680.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1039?window=all) | 38 | 41.53% ±680.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,783 2,783 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,418 1,418 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,024 1,024 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $660 660 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $401 401 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $308 308 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $249 249 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $209 209 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $182 182 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $145 145 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $73.68 73.68 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $73.61 73.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $22.45 22.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $9.19 9.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $4.32 4.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.36 2.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.98 1.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.76 1.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.26 1.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.58 0.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.50× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.41 0.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.41 0.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.38× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.11 0.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-well-worn) | 15.0% | $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 10 | 5.7 | 1.75× |
| [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 20.7% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1039`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1039)

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [Default Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Default%20Name) $1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.41 0.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-10 16:30 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) [Liudmila doroceanc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Liudmila%20doroceanc) $1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.76 1.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.09x 2026-11-10 16:30 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fubar (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.58 0.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.36x 2026-11-09 21:40 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) Hidden $1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.41 0.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-09 21:40 UTC

[MP9 | Modest Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-well-worn) Hidden $1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-09 21:40 UTC

[UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $9.19 9.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN 5.71x 2026-11-09 21:40 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 06:49 UTC

[MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) Hidden $1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.98 1.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.23x 2026-11-08 06:49 UTC

[MP9 | Modest Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-well-worn) Hidden $1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-08 06:49 UTC

[MP9 | Modest Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-well-worn) Hidden $1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-08 06:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.61 | 90.00% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% epic 0.0% covert 0.1% #EB4B4B 0.0% covert knife 0.1% Legendary 0.1% classified 2.0% mil spec 27.0% restricted 29.0% Rare 6.0% blue 15.0% #B0C3D9 20.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt