--- title: "Gamma case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gamma ($5.21) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 30 items with odds, observed 58.43% over 43 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1040 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Gamma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1040) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Gamma A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1040?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1040?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1040) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1040?window=all) Price · $5.21 · 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $4.69 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.43% · 43 openings, odds method Variance · 85.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 43 openings · below min 30 days · 43 openings · below min since tracking started · 43 openings · below min -0.5% 167.0% 334.5% **Small sample.** 43 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1040?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1040?window=7d) | 43 | 58.43% ±275.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1040) | 43 | 58.43% ±275.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1040?window=all) | 43 | 58.43% ±275.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,965 3,965 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,558 1,558 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,182 1,182 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $927 927 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $825 825 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $758 758 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $541 541 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $485 485 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $397 397 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $329 329 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $274 274 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $220 220 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $167 167 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $133 133 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $51.23 51.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.51 16.51 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.6% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.29 11.29 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.1% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 15.0% | $5.75 5.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.4% | 10 | 6.5 | 1.55× | | [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.88 2.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.51 2.51 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.11 2.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.86 0.86 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.83 0.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.55× | | [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.53 0.53 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× | | [PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× | | [Nova \| Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.26 0.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× | | [SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.19 0.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.93× | | [P250 \| Iron Clad (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.14 0.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 12.3% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1040`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1040) [Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN $11.29 11.29 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.17x 2026-11-10 06:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-10 06:59 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN $16.51 16.51 CSGOBIG\_COIN 3.17x 2026-11-10 06:59 UTC [Nova | Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.26 0.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 06:59 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $5.21 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 05:29 UTC [Nova | Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.26 0.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 05:29 UTC [P250 | Iron Clad (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-well-worn) [da ander](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/da%20ander) $5.21 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.14 0.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 05:29 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.83 0.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-09 21:20 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $5.21 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.75 5.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.10x 2026-11-09 21:20 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $5.21 5.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.83 0.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-09 07:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.21 | 89.99% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.2% covert knife 0.0% knifes 0.0% classified 15.5% Classified 5.0% restricted 7.0% Mythical 1.0% blue 11.0% mil spec 15.0% #8847ff 7.0% #4b69ff 8.0% milspec 8.0% #B0C3D9 12.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt