---
title: "Ghost case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ghost ($541.50) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 13 items with odds, observed 27.42% over 2 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1042
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Ghost](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1042)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Ghost

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1042?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1042?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1042) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1042?window=all)

Price · $541.50 · 542 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $487.32 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 27.42% · 2 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 2 openings · below min

since tracking started · 2 openings · below min

-0.5% 264.8% 530.0%

**Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1042?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1042?window=7d) | 2 | 27.42% ±501.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1042) | 2 | 27.42% ±501.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1042?window=all) | 2 | 27.42% ±501.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $100K 100,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) | 1 in 400 | $30K 30,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $7,249 7,249 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4,508 4,508 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50 | $2,973 2,973 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $1,844 1,844 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $860 860 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $628 628 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 12.0% | $572 572 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $297 297 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 20.0% | $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 11.7% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1042`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1042)

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $542 542 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 16:08 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $542 542 CSGOBIG\_COIN $297 297 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.55x 2026-11-08 16:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $542 | 89.99% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% base 0.3% covert 60.0% extraordinary 1.0% restricted 7.0% Covert 20.0% #B0C3D9 11.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt