---
title: "Ovni case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ovni ($45.24) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 89.01% over 14 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1051
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Ovni](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1051)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Ovni

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1051?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1051?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1051) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1051?window=all)

Price · $45.24 · 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $40.72 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.01% · 14 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 14 openings · below min

30 days · 14 openings · below min

since tracking started · 14 openings · below min

-0.5% 104.5% 209.5%

**Small sample.** 14 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1051?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1051?window=7d) | 14 | 89.01% ±119.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1051) | 14 | 89.01% ±119.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1051?window=all) | 14 | 89.01% ±119.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,342 2,342 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $985 985 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $497 497 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $399 399 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $299 299 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $164 164 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $74.20 74.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $58.64 58.64 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 15.0% | $49.13 49.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.1% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 10.0% | $19.96 19.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 10.0% | $9.98 9.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 20.0% | $4.88 4.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 23.6% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1051`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1051)

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) Hidden $45.24 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.88 4.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 11:09 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $45.24 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) Hidden $45.24 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $9.98 9.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-10 10:28 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $45.24 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:28 UTC

[PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $45.24 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:19 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $45.24 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $49.13 49.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.09x 2026-11-08 23:19 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $45.24 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $19.96 19.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.44x 2026-11-08 23:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) [Pearso](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Pearso) $45.24 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.88 4.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-07 05:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) Hidden $45.24 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.88 4.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-07 05:09 UTC

[MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.24 45.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $74.20 74.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.64x 2026-11-07 05:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $45.24 | 90.00% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 30.1% epic 0.1% covert 38.2% Covert 1.0% extraordinary 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% #B0C3D9 23.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt