--- title: "Potion case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Potion ($1,450.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 20 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1056 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Potion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1056) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Potion A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1056?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1056?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1056) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1056?window=all) Price · $1,450.00 · 1,450 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $1,304.84 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 10.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1056?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1056?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1056) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1056?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $100K 100,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $64.5K 64,517 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $42.1K 42,076 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $35.1K 35,064 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) | 1 in 500 | $29K 29,007 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $22.4K 22,441 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $19.3K 19,285 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $17K 16,971 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 333 | $13.9K 13,869 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 250 | $10.3K 10,309 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $7,853 7,853 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $6,381 6,381 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $5,129 5,129 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 204 | $4,208 4,208 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) | 1 in 167 | $4,067 4,067 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $3,289 3,289 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) | 20.0% | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 40.0% | $350 350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1056`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1056) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,450 | 89.99% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.8% remarkable 0.1% covert 53.1% base 0.2% extraordinary 0.2% high 20.6% #B0C3D9 25.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt