--- title: "Candy Craze case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Candy Craze ($29.52) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 18 items with odds, observed 87.52% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1058 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Candy Craze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1058) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Candy Craze A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1058?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1058?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1058) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1058?window=all) Price · $29.52 · 29.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $26.57 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.52% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 7 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 148.8% 298.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1058?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1058?window=7d) | 7 | 111.63% ±185.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1058) | 12 | 87.52% ±141.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1058?window=all) | 12 | 87.52% ±141.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $973 973 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $896 896 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $798 798 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $699 699 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $595 595 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $499 499 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $393 393 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $323 323 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $294 294 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $174 174 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $114 114 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $66.79 66.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 15.0% | $36.48 36.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $32.91 32.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 10.0% | $16.65 16.65 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.94 9.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) | 20.0% | $4.98 4.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 31.6% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1058`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1058) [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) Hidden $29.52 29.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.98 4.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-10 01:19 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $29.52 29.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $9.94 9.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.34x 2026-11-06 17:49 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) Hidden $29.52 29.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $174 174 CSGOBIG\_COIN 5.90x 2026-11-06 17:49 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $29.52 29.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $36.48 36.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.24x 2026-11-06 17:49 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) Hidden $29.52 29.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 17:49 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) Hidden $29.52 29.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.98 4.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-06 17:49 UTC [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) [Jörgen van der gurt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/J%C3%B6rgen%20van%20der%20gurt) $29.52 29.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 17:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $29.52 | 90.01% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.7% restricted 15.1% #EB4B4B 0.1% covert knife 0.5% classified 35.0% #B0C3D9 31.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt