--- title: "Popcorn case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Popcorn ($230.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.02% from 18 items with odds, observed 78.74% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1068 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Popcorn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1068) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Popcorn A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1068?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1068?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1068) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1068?window=all) Price · $230.00 · 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.02% · EV $207.04 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.74% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 19 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min -0.5% 103.5% 207.5% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1068?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1068?window=7d) | 19 | 39.02% ±137.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1068) | 22 | 78.74% ±127.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1068?window=all) | 22 | 78.74% ±127.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $10.9K 10,899 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $5,800 5,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $3,988 3,988 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $2,159 2,159 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $1,250 1,250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $1,046 1,046 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $392 392 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $371 371 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $293 293 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $216 216 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $117 117 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $91.07 91.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.13× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 14.2% | $48.33 48.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 14.1% | $29.05 29.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.61× | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 13.3% | $19.50 19.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× | | [Sticker \| Complexity Gaming (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-gold-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 11 | $14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $10.97 10.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1068`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2,159 2,159 CSGOBIG\_COIN 9.39x 2026-11-03 06:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1068) [PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $19.50 19.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 20:40 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $371 371 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.61x 2026-11-09 20:40 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) Hidden $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $29.05 29.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-09 20:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-minimal-wear) Hidden $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $91.07 91.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.40x 2026-11-09 20:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) Hidden $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.97 10.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-09 20:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) [Propagandapandafromuganda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Propagandapandafromuganda) $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $19.50 19.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 20:40 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $371 371 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.61x 2026-11-07 16:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) Hidden $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $48.33 48.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-07 16:50 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $117 117 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.51x 2026-11-07 16:50 UTC [Sticker | Complexity Gaming (Gold) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-gold-antwerp-2022) Hidden $230 230 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-07 16:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $230 | 90.02% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 27.2% restricted 33.6% covert knife 21.7% #EB4B4B 8.9% mil spec 8.7% best hit $2,159 (9.39x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.02 on average: an expected loss of $9.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt