--- title: "Koi Pond case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Koi Pond ($342.55) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 28 items with odds, observed 4.43% over 2 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1078 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Koi Pond](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1078) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Koi Pond A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1078?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1078?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1078) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1078?window=all) Price · $342.55 · 343 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $308.24 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 4.43% · 2 openings, odds method Variance · 36.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 75 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 2 openings · below min 30 days · 2 openings · below min since tracking started · 2 openings · below min -0.5% 420.0% 840.5% **Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1078?window=24h) | 2 | 4.43% ±835.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1078?window=7d) | 2 | 4.43% ±835.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1078) | 2 | 4.43% ±835.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1078?window=all) | 2 | 4.43% ±835.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $105K 105,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $56.1K 56,100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 2,000 | $37.3K 37,295 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $28.1K 28,050 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,429 | $19.3K 19,284 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $15.9K 15,904 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $13.9K 13,869 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $11K 11,010 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $7,714 7,714 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $5,594 5,594 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $4,292 4,292 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $4,023 4,023 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $3,184 3,184 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $2,664 2,664 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,806 1,806 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,248 1,248 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $1,020 1,020 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $977 977 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $764 764 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $568 568 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $291 291 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 11.6% | $146 146 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 13.6% | $90.62 90.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 14.5% | $48.00 48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| REZ (Gold) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rez-gold-berlin-2019) | 14.4% | $28.99 28.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| KSCERATO (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kscerato-gold-rio-2022) | 13.5% | $19.41 19.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-stymphalian-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $14.21 14.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $10.96 10.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1078`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1078) [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $343 343 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.96 10.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 15:59 UTC [Sticker | KSCERATO (Gold) | Rio 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kscerato-gold-rio-2022) Hidden $343 343 CSGOBIG\_COIN $19.41 19.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-10 15:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $343 | 89.98% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.1% extraordinary 0.2% base 0.1% covert 5.5% legendary 0.2% contraband 0.3% Covert 0.5% epic 0.7% high 1.0% covert knife 19.1% #ffd700 13.6% classified 23.5% #EB4B4B 27.9% milspec 7.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt