---
title: "20% Heatcheck case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "20% Heatcheck ($797.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 29 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1086
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [20% Heatcheck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1086)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 20% Heatcheck

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1086?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1086?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1086) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1086?window=all)

Price · $797.00 · 797 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $717.06 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1086?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1086?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1086) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1086?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 3,333 | $35.2K 35,188 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) | 1 in 2,000 | $29K 29,007 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $25.3K 25,335 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $16.9K 16,890 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $13.7K 13,653 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $13.1K 13,074 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.5K 12,511 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 500 | $11.6K 11,598 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $11.1K 11,104 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $10.3K 10,275 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $9,383 9,383 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 286 | $8,445 8,445 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 286 | $7,147 7,147 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $6,052 6,052 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 167 | $5,630 5,630 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $4,926 4,926 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $4,574 4,574 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $3,925 3,925 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $3,603 3,603 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $3,223 3,223 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $2,721 2,721 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $2,377 2,377 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 45 | $1,971 1,971 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1,689 1,689 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 29 | $1,281 1,281 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Bash (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bash-holo) | 25.0% | $5.44 5.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Baited (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baited-holo) | 25.0% | $3.35 3.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Cyber Chicken (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cyber-chicken-holo) | 29.9% | $2.65 2.65 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1086`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1086)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $797 | 89.97% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 3.7% base 0.1% covert 11.0% extraordinary 1.0% #EB4B4B 0.1% remarkable 25.8% classified 0.8% epic 2.5% #8847ff 25.0% violet 29.9% #B0C3D9 0.1%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt