--- title: "Origins case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Origins ($63.75) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.93% from 15 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1101 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Origins](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1101) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Origins A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1101?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1101?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1101) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1101?window=all) Price · $63.75 · 63.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.93% · EV $57.33 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1101?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1101?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1101) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1101?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,919 4,919 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,389 2,389 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,897 1,897 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,486 1,486 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,242 1,242 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,037 | $1,044 1,044 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $762 762 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Factory New) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $466 466 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $293 293 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 10.9% | $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 27.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 13.5% | $91.07 91.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 21.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 18.5% | $48.33 48.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 18.4% | $29.05 29.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 17.3% | $19.50 19.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Complexity Gaming (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-gold-antwerp-2022) | 19.2% | $14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1101`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1101) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $63.75 | 89.93% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 18.7% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% epic 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.0% mil spec 1.8% covert knife 24.4% restricted 35.8% #EB4B4B 19.2% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.93 on average: an expected loss of $10.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt