--- title: "Diamond Frog case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Diamond Frog ($561.17) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 35.64% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1116 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Diamond Frog](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1116) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Diamond Frog A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1116?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1116?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1116) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1116?window=all) Price · $561.17 · 561 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $505.05 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 35.64% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 148.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 1210.8% 2422.0% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1116?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1116?window=7d) | 1 | 35.64% ±2385.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1116) | 1 | 35.64% ±2385.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1116?window=all) | 1 | 35.64% ±2385.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $200K 200,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 39.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $75K 75,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $18.7K 18,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $15K 15,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $10K 10,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $8,800 8,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 30.0% | $250 250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 30.0% | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 39.0% | $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1116`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1116) [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) Hidden $561 561 CSGOBIG\_COIN $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.36x 2026-11-09 03:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $561 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.6% legendary 0.1% remarkable 0.2% restricted 0.1% classified 69.0% red 30.0% #B0C3D9 0.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt