--- title: "Sushi case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sushi ($86.55) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.03% from 13 items with odds, observed 29.14% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1125 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Sushi](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1125) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Sushi A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1125?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1125?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1125) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1125?window=all) Price · $86.55 · 86.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.03% · EV $77.92 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 29.14% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 14.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 202.5% 405.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1125?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1125?window=7d) | 4 | 29.14% ±375.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1125) | 4 | 29.14% ±375.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1125?window=all) | 4 | 29.14% ±375.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $3,866 3,866 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,950 1,950 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,008 | $720 720 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,086 | $272 272 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Foil) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-foil-katowice-2015) | 12.9% | $97.21 97.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 14.5% | $56.60 56.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| MSL (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-msl-foil-boston-2018) | 14.8% | $34.13 34.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-red-rock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $23.39 23.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $16.94 16.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.14 13.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $10.45 10.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [Autograph Capsule \| Virtus.Pro \| Cologne 2016 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-virtus-pro-cologne-2016) | 28.0% | $8.41 8.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1125`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1125) [MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) Hidden $86.55 86.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.45 10.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.12x 2026-11-06 16:19 UTC [MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) [p0ki.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/p0ki.) $86.55 86.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.45 10.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.12x 2026-11-06 16:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $86.55 86.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $56.60 56.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.65x 2026-11-06 16:19 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Red Rock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-red-rock-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.55 86.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $23.39 23.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.27x 2026-11-06 16:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $86.55 | 90.03% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 19.9% gold 0.1% covert knife 0.1% #D32CE6 12.9% #8847FF 14.8% restricted 8.7% classified 10.5% industrial 5.1% #B0C3D9 28.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.03 on average: an expected loss of $9.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt