--- title: "Tropical case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Tropical ($147.89) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.07% from 15 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1128 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Tropical](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1128) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Tropical A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1128?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1128?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1128) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1128?window=all) Price · $147.89 · 148 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.07% · EV $133.21 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1128?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1128?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1128) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1128?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,905 3,905 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,968 1,968 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,574 1,574 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $1,288 1,288 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $1,109 1,109 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $873 873 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $493 493 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $182 182 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 17.7% | $153 153 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 14.6% | $131 131 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-stained-factory-new) | 11.7% | $115 115 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $86.83 86.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $73.43 73.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-well-worn) | 23.0% | $60.99 60.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1128`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1128) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $148 | 90.07% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 36.1% restricted 0.5% covert knife 26.4% mil spec 8.9% gold 5.1% #4B69FF 23.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.07 on average: an expected loss of $9.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt